In the United States on the Renminbi exchange rate for a long time, but the recent disputes are particularly intensive, United States officials and members are increasing pressure on the Renminbi exchange rate policy. 24 September, United States House of representatives ways and means Committee voted to so-called underestimated national currency to impose special tariff Bill.
Experts said that the so-called special tariff Act, in fact just a United States political game. As the mid-term elections approaching, the United States or China, there are more hardline behavior, intellectual property issues will likely become the RMB exchange rate, the United States to exert pressure on China to another topic.
Huge special tariffs for the effect to legislative
RMB exchange rate have several consecutive trading day all-time high, even so, it remains difficult to relieve the pressure from the United States. 24 September, United States House of representatives ways and means Committee voted to so-called underestimated national currency to impose special tariff Bill. It is expected that this Bill as early as this week in the House of representatives voted for the whole Institute. According to the United States in the legislative procedure, if the House of representatives voted, the Bills will enter Senate legislative procedures.
China international currency, Director, Centre for the Sun Hua Yu accept the information daily law reporter said that currently, the Act has been 143 deputies support, but to have 435 members of the House of representatives passed, the Bill shall be more than half, i.e. at least 218 members support. Even with the House of representatives passed, the Bill ultimately entered into force, the approval by the President of the Senate, and other programs.
"But if this week to vote, to be sure that the 2 November midterm election, the United States will not develop legislation on this issue. "Sun Hua Yu said," considering that China is the third largest import market in the United States, and is the fastest growing import markets, if China "with its dead person you Gander", the United States is injured, I believe that United States political leaders will handle this Bill sanity. Ultimately this draft legislation into law. ”
Foreign Trade University China WTO Research Institute New Springs, Vice President of slaughter in the acceptance of the information daily "reporters said the Bill in the House of representatives passed the possibilities is large, but very likely in the Senate blocked. Tu new springs that, generally speaking, the United States House of representatives tend to trade protection more obvious, in the past on many Chinese adverse Act comes from the House of representatives, the special tariff bill in the House of representatives passed a lot of possibilities. However, it is expected that the Senate it is difficult to pass.
Tu XinQuan analysis said that from a legal point of view of the WTO rules, the adoption of this Act, the United States needs to prove that China specialized in order to expand the export of the exchange rate underestimated. This context relates to China's undervalued currency is how to make a judgment, on the one hand, and of how to prove that China's exchange rate underestimated to expand exports. While these two areas that are very difficult to achieve, this is the Obama administration is very clear, so many times before you do not want to admit that China is "exchange rate manipulation".
Renmin University of China Institute of international relations, Vice President of Jin Canrong also on the information daily reporter said, even if the United States Senate passed the Bill that Obama will cons, estimates will not be signed. Because once you sign the Bill, and the United States trade war will break out, the United States does not have any benefits.
In fact, come from the United States domestic opposition. United States dozens of agricultural and commercial organizations 14 joint urges Congress not to adopt a Chinese RMB bills impose special tariffs. Including the u.s., United States Soybean Association and the United States meat Association, 36 home industry organizations wrote a letter to Congress, said that "We strongly oppose the use of anti-dumping or countervailing duty law to handle the annoyance several years of monetary issues", the Renminbi exchange rate proposal would "make the United States in violation of WTO rules of commitment".
Department of Commerce's international trade and economic cooperation Research Institute researcher Mei Xinyu said, even if the Special Act passed by the probability is very low, China should also take precautions to prepare for the worst. The Chinese side shall prepare an appropriate response to mitigate the once this Bill passed may have on the impact of Chinese exports.
United States or to win votes to China more intransigent behavior
"The pressure on the RMB is only the United States of a political game, fully to the economy. "Jin Canrong stated that the present United States faced with two of the most important question, one is the mid-term elections approaching, the second is the United States economic growth without employment. United States politicians in order to alleviate the enormous political pressure, density, to put pressure on China to shirk its responsibility towards the public, to obtain the vote.
Jin Canrong said that in the United States midterm elections before the United States will continue to exert pressure on Yuan, even after the end of the midterm election, also depends on the employment situation of the United States domestic, if employment is still not optimistic, the United States on China pressures will not be reduced.
China Construction Bank senior researcher Zhao Qing-Ming in accepting the information daily law reporter said that the recent United States House of representatives ways and means Committee this field hearings against the RMB exchange rate and vote in reality is a "farce", in the United States midterm elections ended, "farce" naturally subside.
"Political context, the United States both parties want to borrow the Renminbi exchange rate issue enhancing appearance rate for midterm election campaigns; economic aspects, the slow recovery in the United States, the unemployment rate remained high, economic research at the end of the second, the risk is that Bill and promote background. "Sun Hua Yu said.
In addition to the "exchange rate manipulation" this stick, traditional tools such as anti-dumping or countervailing measures in the near term and intensive use by the United States turns. September 21, United States Department of Commerce on us-coated paper "double-reverse" affirmative zhongcai. In recent cases, the United States Court of international trade has ruled that the United States for Chinese products "double-reverse" survey is not justified, but the United States remain the "glib tongue", China is a non-market economy countries, still on Chinese exports to the United States products at the same time using both anti-dumping and anti-subsidy trade
Easy relief means to improve identification of dumping and subsidies, levying high tariffs.According to the Ministry of commerce statistics, this one only iron and steel industry, since 2007, the United States has been on China's many products launched the "double-reverse" investigation and trade relief measures, including the popular standard steel pipe, tube, 15 gangge mill products, involving a total amount of nearly $ 7 billion, accounting for China on the United States exports of iron and steel products 1/3.
Industry noted that the United States in the traditional trade areas on China's pressure seems to have intensified recently United States also in the WTO against prosecution over China. This explains, at least 11 months before the mid-term election, the United States will also continue to take more drastic action.
Jin Canrong pointed out that it is important to note that in the United Nations General Assembly in Obama on China during the IP issues in a lot of dissatisfaction, intellectual property issues will likely become the Renminbi exchange rate issues, the United States to exert pressure on China to another topic.
Bucket without breaking the Sino-US trade war does not occur
Although the United States and trade dispute will be intensified, but most experts have stated that they do not rise to the two countries trade war.
Jin Canrong pointed out that the United States market for each other, is the stock and increment of game. Although the Chinese exports to the United States on the stocks are great, but judging from incremental, China's exports to the United States began to slow down the growth rate for the United States exports, China is a 30% per year of speed is expanding market. According to statistics, from 2001 to 2007, the United States overall export growth of 30%, exports to China increased up to 100%. "It can be said that the United States has just started to taste the sweet taste of the Chinese market, will not easily give up. ”
Tu new Springs also said that the United States is not possible to trigger a trade war, dialogue is the only way to resolve disputes. The United States is likely to "Thunder and rain," and maintains the "bucket not broken". If the United States has repeatedly violated WTO rules, China will actively appeal, recourse to dispute settlement in international organization level.
BusinessWeek (BusinessWeek) columnist Peter · dzhankoi (PeterCoy) on 24 September, the article said, commenting on the United States if the violation of WTO rules to force the appreciation of the Renminbi, may give yourself brings multiple risks, including the United States trade war. China carefully within the framework of the WTO, for example, the United States should follow, not to defy. If the United States adopted in breach of WTO provisions to punish the United States, China will face multiple risks, including a trade war, lost the support of other countries, as well as the destruction of decades of hard work to establish free trade system.
Department of Commerce's international trade and economic cooperation Institute when rain Lee, Vice President of the interview, said that China's economic structure and the development of their economic dependence and constraints of unprecedented high. If a United States person is not from the Chinese imports, also have to go to other emerging economies imports. But China's manufacturing industry level compared to other emerging economies, the advantage is obvious, more and more Chinese enterprises provided goods price ratio is very high. Discard this choice, no good for the United States. What's more, the world economy earlier is no longer a United States party to the era of dominance.
Experts said that the relations between China and the United States has entered a very mature stage, despite the existence of a conflict of interest and friction points, but the 2010 bilateral economic and trade pattern does not change significantly. China in a global era "peaceful rise" and global interests and objectives of the ongoing integration process, that is, with the United States trade partners continued mutual adaptation and adjustment of complex and interactive processes. US economic and trade fields of mutual benefit not only two countries, but also on the contribution of world development. (Source: information daily)
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