One of the fundamental problems of the national economy is the number of growing trade surplus, to domestic difficulties caused by the economic balance. Popular opinion, on the trade surplus, and only to the effects of the "international" direction to think, or even just debate on the impact of the economic balance in the United States. But since that international trade, one of the countries and China, it contains a huge surplus of external relations, thus China itself has no effect in the domestic economy? personal point of view, such a "stranger" thinking inside the disappeared, is for many years the RMB exchange rate and monetary problems do not get proper treatment of cognitive basis.
Phenomenon is not complicated: every year a large number of Chinese net exports of goods, but the production of these goods by monetary income, but remain in the country. These have no items in the domestic market and the corresponding number of currency, less indifferent, but seeing increasing, the effects will not lightly. Statistics are recorded: Chinese goods and services of net exports, 1990 510 billion RMB, 2.6% of gross national product (GNP); 1997, 3550 billion, representing 4.3%; 2004 10223 billion, representing 5.4%; 2007 23381 billion, representing 8.9%; the 2008 financial crisis affects China's exports, but this year's net exports also 24135 billion, representing those 7.9 per cent of GNP. "Net exports", all goods and services exports minus imports all the goods and services is the difference between. Here to ask a few questions: this part of the net exports of goods and services, where production of? in China. This portion of net exports of goods and services, is produced in vain? of course not. So who is this part of the net exports of production goods and services is earned income? workers earn artificial, boss earn investment income, Government and administration to tax, bank interest, maybe there are other services side earn fees. All these create a net exports of goods and services and earn revenue on the domestic market, what happened? said, is not a decimal, but every year a trillion for the calculation of the number. Also said that this part of the monetary income corresponds to the commodity of labor full exports, is "left" in domestic purchasing power of the "pure." We asked to be pressed, the annual number of trillion in purchasing power in the market so you can buy? increase savings. This is also the issue of savings in China in recent years due to one of the reasons for global concern. Related to explain, from Chinese like saving cultural identity to the social insurance inadequate mandatory savings and so on, after a few will have the opportunity to explore further. Here it should be noted that only one thing: regardless of the cause of China's high savings, increase savings and not for China increasing net exports of RMB purchasing power, locate the market balance.
Statistics says that by the end of 2008, the balance of our various deposit 46.6 trillion, the loan balance 30.3 trillion respectively in 2004 increased 22.5 trillion and 12.5 trillion. Last year, only the first quarter of the new bank credit $ 4.5 trillion. There are different views on the defence that the origin of the Chinese credit expansion is not issuing banknotes, but savings, so no big deal. I dismiss the argument, as in surplus huge export-oriented economy, already quite a savings, simply can not find the corresponding goods, through bank loans, the sudden increase in pressure on prices in the market.
Speak to the end, net exports earn on currency to catch up to the goods, the Bank lent out more to catch up. This explains why don't these years is "hot", here is where the "hot". If the Government simply regardless of price, allowing no commodity purchasing power of all corresponding to the excess of the market, and finally will always "balance"? also in 2007, for example — the annual net exports 2.3 trillion, representing approximately 9% of the gross national product — if you let price regardless of the year, overall prices rise 9%, excessive money chasing the commodity of the game, can feel self interest?
There are two difficulties. One is the excessive amount of money flowing into the economy is sticky, may concentrate on a moment or a market of goods. In that case, a commodity price rises may far exceed 9%. Second, the export-oriented non-day, the stock in the economies of excessive currency such as the cage of the Tiger, once released, their appetite may not increase 9%. To merge these two points, plus the people's captive insurance, investment and speculative behavior can't clearly below the expected disorder "frightened" herds may overreact, local market imbalance may explode.
Prices hurt the people, the people said. Government to rule by doing nothing, laissez-faire (laissez-faire), economists can offer suggestions, but listeners Miao miao. Government to see hands frequently interfere with control of the market, from here. Pipe to pipe to the Government sector very hard, but also the best results, you may be able to curb the ultimate measure of currency after the goods in time, but keep on pressing calabash gourd float because cauldron at the end of the pay-export-oriented economy created by excessive purchasing power — and in continuously produced. Remember, money will never die, it's like flooding rivers water, always looking for new export.
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