Trade surplus at a high level experts: RMB or pressure

The latest import/export data shows that this year July trade surplus expanded rapidly, mainly affected by imports growth slower than expected; it or will increase the pace of renminbi appreciation faster.

China International Capital Corporation Limited of economists expected, from criminal striving for the month of June to the end of the appreciation of the RMB will be 3%. He said: "the surplus of the increase will enable the international on the expected increase of RMB. ”

Everbright securities Chief macroeconomic analyst panxiangdong analysis, imported mainly from China domestic demand decline, as well as the policy on the export of encouraging declined. And the gradual increase in foreign countries and high-tech products to the Chinese export restrictions.

Get rid of domestic investment decline caused by the decline in domestic demand, punishment Ziqiang said: "the price is higher than expected decline in the growth rate of imports of one of the reasons, bulk product import while quantity changes are not great, but the price decline to produce changes in imports. ”

China's trade surplus rose will force the banks continue to increase the intensity of open market operations to prevent out-of-control money supply, the trade surplus expanded also will continue to increase the appreciation of the Renminbi pressure. RMB real effective exchange rate in the last two months to appear a certain appreciation of RMB, the dollar has fallen 6.77 gate.

China Merchants Bank global financial analyst, Dong-Liang pointed out that the published export data beyond the expected to the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to lead to a certain extent, if the dollar in international markets continue to weaken, it is expected that the pace of renminbi appreciation month August might speed up, at the end of August or the RMB against the dollar will rise to 6.75.

Prior to this, the Bank clearly expressed the appreciation of the RMB to the impact of exports is limited, but can help curb inflation. With inflation on the rise again, China was still does the interest rate, exchange rate in the next couple of months may be more obvious.