In the second half of the national survey of foreign trade situation is not optimistic about the

5 foreign trade data in beautiful, and not discourage many people on the second half of the foreign trade situation worries.

Customs on June 10th release of the latest data show that in may, exports increased 48.5%, imports have also increased 48.3%, trade surplus for 195 billion. This data goes well beyond the market generally expect that the increase of exports is the highest since March 2007, the highest level.

However, in excellent foreign trade data behind China's foreign trade situation this year is not optimistic. Guangzhou Shantou famous toys export enterprises Chief Mr. Wong told our reporter, the strong exportation may be Europe and the first half of the premium inventory, so a quarterly check-list more, these orders basic focus on June 5, delivery, thus resulting in a 5 month surge in exports. In the second half of the foreign trade enterprises receipt of low season, also coincided with the European debt crisis, "the company's order only to the month of July, the second half of the export situation very difficult to predict. "Mr. Wong said.

Mr WONG's concern is not the case. The Huaxia times reporters to many foreign trade expert said that European sovereign debt crisis negative effects are not fully reflected in the Chinese exports, it is expected that the second half of the external situation does not appear too big improvements, European export orders for fear of difficulty appears obviously improved, therefore the next foreign trade situation is not optimistic.

The complexity of the situation in the second half of the foreign trade has also attracted the attention of the Government. Department of Commerce officials recently launched a new round of research activities, actively expand the share of foreign demand "guarantee" as possible future risks to do ahead of external policy.

Export growth rate exceeding expectations

Look at the export data for the month of may, the Chinese foreign trade seems to be ushered in the sunny days.

According to customs statistics, the first 5 months, China's imports and exports worth $ 11000.9 billion, an increase of 44%. In may, China's export and import values 2439.9 billion, an increase of 48.4%. Exports 1317.6 billion, an increase of 48.5%; import 1122.3 billion, an increase of 48.3%.

May export data far beyond market expectations, the institutions may export data median forecast of 31.44%. 3 month for foreign trade data deficit Flashin, 4 trade resumed small surplus, and may trade surplus and to continue to expand. There is no doubt that foreign demand on the economic contribution rate.

"May export recovery faster and higher than expected. United States led to the first half of the premium inventory is relatively large, exports to electro-mechanical and high-tech exports. "Guangfa securities principal researcher Li taiyong this reporter said, but this newspaper reporters to enterprise it further confirms the above statement.

Dongguan Changan Zhentian ordinary electronic co., Ltd. General Manager Liu, told a reporter from the last quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, Europe, United States market recovery, a good situation, including their enterprises, at that time, many companies have a large number of signed a trade order, and these orders are concentrated in the second quarter, also makes the second quarter of the foreign trade data.

According to customs statistics, the first five months of this year, China's export of electromechanical products 3374.3 million 34.6 percent, compared to China's overall export growth 1.4 percentage, representing over China's exports of 59.4%.

The second half of the situation is complicated

However, the 5 month of foreign trade data is obviously not fully reflect the recent European debt crisis or euros go weak negative impacts.

"4 months, China's exports to Europe's growth is also maintained at 25%, but this kind of response might be delayed. In 5-6 months, particularly in the third quarter will be more obvious reaction may be reduced by 6-7 points. "Department of Commerce's international trade and economic cooperation, the Dean of the Hopi Foundation said.

Guohai securities macroeconomic analyst Yang light also believes, may trade data may have a certain lag, the then European sovereign debt crisis comes at the worst time, it is expected that the second half of the external situation will not appear too big improvements, European export orders for fear of hard to appear markedly.

Li Yong is expected this year too export year trend is descending, the second half of the affected by the debt crisis in Europe and United States second went to stockpile of possibility, foreign trade growth will gradually slow down.

"If for the first five months of foreign trade data is better, in respect of the entire economic situation made blind optimism, that's all wet. "Liu FA said.

According to Liu's introduction, Dongguan foreign trade enterprises may be generally face a situation is no sin in the second half. It is understood that, at present, China's foreign trade enterprises received orders to most is small, short, single, general production cycle are in three or four months. Q3 has been regarded as China's merchandise exports of traditional season, but after the month of October, in General, exports fell around than appears. The euro area is second only to the US dollar area's second-largest export market, affected by the debt crisis in the euro area markets demand atrophy is a foregone conclusion, these uncertainties are the days of the second half of foreign trade enterprises become more difficult to pay.

Department of Commerce research

Faced with the complexity of the situation in the second half of foreign trade, China's Government is beginning to advanced layout.

Vice Premier Li keqiang recently wrote that the world economy and the overall recovery of the Foundation is not secure, the international financial crisis has not yet been eliminated, all forms of protectionism, may maintain or even expand the China external demand a big restriction.

A reporter from the Department of Commerce was informed that recently led by Vice Minister of Commerce has launched a new round of research activities, actively expand the share of foreign demand "guarantee."

Research activities since mid-May, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and other major export city has hosted several groups of Commerce sent foreign trade research teams, research content including corporate orders, production, industrial upgrading and export tax rebates and other foreign trade policy now with regard to the impact of foreign trade enterprises and so on.

May 21, business

Vice Minister of foreign trade in the investigation of Sichuan Zhong Shan. In the Forum, Zhongshan pointed out that this year's situation is very complex, not blind optimism. The financial crisis is not yet in the past, external demand is still not a real recovery, China's export of more intense international competition, trade friction situation even more challenging, enterprises are also faced with raw materials, labor and shipping costs upward pressure.

Reporter was informed that the Department of Commerce in this research because the second half of the external environment becomes more complex, in order to learn more about exporting enterprises, but also to the second half of the foreign trade policy adjustments provide a primary basis.