Haze getting scattered in the world economy could rejoicing, "Europe five" also have dished out future debt crisis. The weakening of the euro area economy is completed or Overture? yesterday, in the third China Open Forum, from the Department of State Development Research Center, the World Academy of the OECD, Ministry of Commerce, the Central Party school experts launched debates.
International situation debate: on base or recovery
"International financial crisis is likely to be at the end of the second exploration. "As one of the opening ceremony, Wei Jianguo has raised the argument that" pessimistic about the United States has never met current such significant economic, diplomatic, financial, financial difficulties, the unemployment rate reached 10%, the United States before the Commerce Minister also believes that too many uncertain factors. "For the EU economy, Wei Jianguo considers that Greece's debt crisis outbreak is only the tip of the iceberg," the EU's first $ 1 trillion in loans have been put in place, but if you want to solve the problem of Spain requires 7 trillion, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, the EU is very difficult to save. ”
CPPCC National Committee, State Foreign Economic Research Department of the former Minister Zhang Xiao JI give a moderate: at the end of the second approach is not the same as back low point during the crisis. "According to various global financial and economic cycle analysis in the economy reached rock bottom after recovery would not be very obvious V-shaped, there will be a small adjustment, recent callback is normal economic cycle repeatedly, or due to problems in the financial system have not been fundamentally resolved, this has yet to be seen. ”
In contrast, the world economic and co-operative Development Organization, Ministry of economic and monetary policy and financial markets Division of Boris · McConnell was the most optimistic. In his view, even though still relatively fragile financial markets, but real estate recovery, global trade growth signals is supported by the strong arguments, "United States in the second quarter to maintain a good momentum, however, as inventory adjustments in the end and the normalization of the financial policy, there will be some constraints, but Europe loan crisis will not be long confidence European will enter a moderate growth period, Japan business investment will again. "According to the OECD forecasts, China 2010 annual economic growth of more than 11%, 2011 fall to 10 percent level. Compared internationally, so the "growth" of the State Council, luzhong principles that the world economy in the next few years may enter the low-growth period, in previous years, an increase of 4% is not complex.
Not optimistic trade data: less than $ 50 billion trade surplus
Although experts on macro-economic situation of dogma, the euro zone shock on domestic trade market worries but almost unanimous. "Generally speaking, the Chinese foreign trade surplus each year is 1500 to 2000 billion surplus in the April 16 billion this year alone, there are 8 months: 8 months there will be some month deficit, whereas in previous years remained in surplus at $ 2 billion. "Wei Jianguo said.
State financial Institute Deputy Director Zhangchenghui indicates that, according to last year's figures, the EU 27 countries in Chinese export market share ratio of close to 20%, is China's largest export object state, Europe loan crisis will have on China's export recovery have a greater impact.
Wei Jianguo also told reporters that the situation is not optimistic also manifested in 2010 fair of "light". "Overseas businessmen, investors from the EU grew by 15.2%, but the trade volume has declined 8.7%," he said, enterprises get the most of orders is 3-6 months of short order, most orders to make up for last year caused by the financial crisis, no import inventory to fill, "not like in the past is long, mainly European merchants on their national market does not look good, hesitation, wait and see. ”
Lu Zhongyuan also believes that the future international market will keep 2%-3% growth, China's foreign demand will not be like the 2005-2007 so relaxed. "Our foreign demand will also need to upgrade," he went on to ask, "is the extensive processing trade to higher value-added, more high technology content, in the direction of the world economy slow growth period would cause China's trade environment tight, increased trade friction, against Chinese exports of trade protectionism will figure constantly refurbishment, this is the reality we face. ”
Domestic demand society construction: breaking down barriers "and powerful economic"
In foreign demand face a more complex situation, "the expansion of domestic demand" is the theme of the Forum participants spoke yesterday in the high-frequency words. International famous China experts, National University of Singapore-Asian Institute Zheng yongnian believes that the financial crisis is the structural imbalance of the world economy, while Chinese products structure of supreme goal should be to establish the domestic demand in the community.
This reporter has learned that the global financial crisis, including the European debt crisis in the great majority of national trauma is the financial industry-developed countries. "In the 1990s, Iceland banking system crazy expansion, 2007 Iceland banking assets in GDP up to 11 times, and China as the leading national indirect financing, bank assets accounted for more than only 2-3 times; Dubai has long relied on foreign investment and real estate, there is no real economy. "Zhangchenghui told reporters. Corresponding manufacturing developed Germany in respect of an injury is relatively small.
And in the construction of domestic demand social tasks and challenges, Zheng yongnian considers, first of all is further on the abundance of private capital liberalization of monopoly industries, to break the so-called "powerful economy", "the second is economic results sharing, once the unfair distribution of reflected in State-owned enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises of distribution, as well as the Government's lack of parent companies have the people, the second imbalance is represented as an ordinary worker tax taxation thresholds too low, private, and so on. ”
In addition, Zheng yongnian also stated that the establishment of domestic demand society the most important task is to establish a social policy, long-term GDP doctrine resulted in housing, education system, social security, health and other social areas of excessive commercialization, "there is no protection mechanism is very difficult to bring up the growth of middle class, not the middle class will not have the consumer society. ”
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