Last September, the G20 Summit in Pittsburgh, United States, Barack Obama will put the global economy and balance issues into Pittsburgh Summit agenda. In 2009, September 20, accept United States CNN interview: "we cannot go back to before, China and Germany and other countries sell us things, but we are a great addition to pinch my credit card and mortgage, nothing to sell them. "This thing out, immediately causing the market alert, Obama may excuse for global economic rebalancing to put pressure on China and other countries, to find an excuse for protectionism.
Earlier this year, Obama in the State of the Union in the national export strategy, strive for five years, the exports doubled, increasing the 200 000 jobs. But Obama's recent media interviews, export, the more the more manufacturing; manufacturing and more, it is necessary to employ more people, "which stands for more work. "The current United States economic recovery growth momentum, the United States want to achieve exports doubled, stimulating economic growth and increase employment. But I think the United States "export" to create a multiplication in the global economic recovery, but not taken contrary to the global economic recovery measures and policies.
First, in order to expand exports, cannot take trade protectionism harms. United States in order to expand exports, constantly taking protectionist measures that restrict the export of Chinese products. Obama 11 September last year decided to implement tire imports from China for a period of three years of punitive tariffs and began to limit Chinese tire imports, trade protectionism continues to heat up. Since last year, the United States against China countervailing, anti-dumping investigation in respect of up to several dozens up to block China products to enter the United States market. September 20, Obama said, "no effort" to solve the problem of RMB, and indicated that the United States will be in the World Trade Organization (WTO) to China to take more sanctions measures, means that the Obama administration on China trade sanctions may continue to raise.
The second is continually pressured the RMB exchange rate, I hope China for the recovery of the United States. Current United States unemployment is high, United States want to pass multiple exports less imports, to improve the balance of payments, expanding employment, eyes and stare at the exchange rate of RMB, RMB exchange rate underestimated that is causing the Sino-US trade imbalance. China on 21 July 2005 for a new round of institutional reform, the Exchange has established a market-based, reference to a basket of currencies of managed floating exchange rate regime. At that time, the Renminbi appreciation against the US dollar exchange rate for a one-time, 2% against the US dollar remains the Renminbi appreciation of the situation. According to China's Central Bank statistics, 2005 exchange rate regime, the Yuan against the dollar by about 23%, in addition to the dollar, the RMB to some major African-American currency appreciation of the situation will remain, the appreciation of the Renminbi against the euro, the pound sterling 14.16% appreciation about 42.83% (since 1 August 2006-present), so some of the leading international currency to currency appreciation, basically.
In addition to the overall level of currency renminbi rose, that is, the Renminbi exchange rate index effectively. According to bis statistics, July 2005, the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB index 100.94 2010 August 114.12, up about 13.06% for the month of March 2009 the highest 122.88. 2005 July RMB real effective exchange rate index 99.61 2010 August 118.64, an increase of about 19.10% in February 2009 the highest 126.06. In fact, the Chinese Government has been in continuous efforts to improve the mechanism of the RMB exchange rate, deepen the reform of the Renminbi exchange rate regime, not the manipulation of the RMB exchange rate, some Western politicians accused the Chinese manipulate the RMB exchange rate, often as an excuse for trade protectionism.
Third, the United States adopt expansionary macroeconomic policies, and constantly increase the amount of the depreciation of the US dollar has. Since the United States after the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the Fed has taken a loose monetary policy, interest rates decline, dollar go soft. The dollar index from 84 in early 2007 to 2008 around downturn at the end of July for about 73, even in 2008, July 15, reached its lowest point 71.872. In order to stimulate the economy, the United States deficit and fiscal policy and the excessive expansion of the monetary policy, such as 30, United States President Barack Obama raised $ 3.5 trillion budget, according to the United States Treasury Department published data show that last year began on 1 October 2009 financial year, the budget deficit 1.42 trillion.
Moreover, the United States through quantitative easing the purchase of United States bonds and other debt currency, such as expansion of 18 March United States Federal Reserve Board decided to maintain the rate interval unchanged, while plans big purchase 1.15 trillion in debt, including up to $ 300 billion of long-term debt, United States of $ 7500 mortgage bonds and the related $ 100 billion of mortgage agency bonds. Currently, the Fed's balance sheet has expanded to about 2.11 trillion, an increase of the deficit into inflation risks. United States started banknote, will promote the depreciation of the dollar, dollar index from March 9, 2009 fell to the highest 89.009 to June 2, 2009 the lowest 78.404. 2010 September 21, the Federal Reserve held its latest round of meetings will maintain yixi federal funds rate at 0-0.25% of interval, the federal funds rate will be a long time in a very low level; also will maintain the use of securities held to maturity and then return funds investment policies; Federal Reserve claimed that will continue to focus on economic prospects and financial market development, where necessary, be prepared to provide further easing. Because the United States take liberal macroeconomic policies that lead to the dollar's soft will help exports. But the dollar's soft, could lead to international financial asset prices, higher risk of inflation. In addition, the United States liberal macroeconomic policies, market liquidity, capital influx of Asian countries, Asian countries currency appreciation, will cause the export decline, asset price inflation risks increase, once the capital outflows may be cited
From these countries economic fluctuations.The author believes that the United States export multiplication of implementation must be dependent on global economic recovery, not to the "neighbour" policy, or the United States export the inevitable frustration, multiplication and the equanimity, the pace of global economic recovery.
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