China's economy, "the world's second" value dash?

This month's guest

Yangyiyong: development and Reform Commission Institute for social development

Zhang ya: national development and Reform Commission, Director of investment Research Institute formerly Vice President, investment Association of China

Zhangyansheng: national development and foreign economic Institute

■ Topic environment

China is the world's second beyond the United States has just 9 years?

China's economy will surpass Japan had not a new topic, but most new data still a stone to excite Melaleuca waves, the world's eyes once again focusing on China.

Japan Cabinet Office 16, published data show that during the second half of the year Japan real GDP by $ 12880 billion, ring than 0.1% annualised growth 0.4% weaker than expected. While China has already been announced before economic data in the first half of this year, second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) by $ 13390 billion.

Many people said that the Group of data means that more than Japan, China has become the world's second largest economy. But the voice of reason, also remind people not to indulge, because the decisions of national strength is the per capita GDP, and this data is only China Japan's 1/10.

Supporting this view, there is a set of data, the annual growth rate of China's economy is 10%, but it is expected that Japan's economic growth this year is 3%. As a rule of thumb, the Chinese economy will for seasonal reasons, in the fourth quarter to become more active, China also has the fourth-quarter more than Japan's economic output.

It was, now the second quarter was outpaced Japan, coupled with the fourth quarter of good performance, China annual output will exceed Japan, the world's second non-Chinese.

30 July, Vice Governor of the State Secretary and head of the prise said: "China in fact now is already the world's second largest economy. ”

According to statistics, from 1980, China has spent over 18 years, Germany, United Kingdom, France and other developed countries, United States, Japan has become the world's third largest economy.

Today, more than the total economy seems to be a winner in Japan, many countries began with the media are also encourages China to the world's second economic status, China will surpass the United States as the world's largest economy has also become a developed country and waimei consistent.

United Kingdom national economic and Social Research Institute report released by the end of July of this year China's economic growth rate in the United States for 11.6% 3.1%, China annual average economic growth rate of 8%, the United States for 3%, therefore, only 9 years China will surpass the United States.

The World Bank and Deutsche Bank also predicts that China will surpass the United States by the year 2020, Goldman's forecast for the year 2027, JPMorgan forecasts for 2020-2025 period.

Advocate behind demonstrated their China rising wealth of the total amount and the consequent political forces of fears, they worried that China will with his growing influence in the win over Africa has been hostile to Western countries.

Analysts believe that this also means that China will come with Western technology transfer, development assistance, the climate change negotiations difficult requirements to enjoy the benefits of developing countries.

How should we think of the total economy is the second highest in the world of fact? what are the problems China economy? and United States, Japan and other developed countries, and what are the gaps?

To this end, Nanfang daily invited yangyiyong, Zhang, zhangyansheng three experts was a guest at the "Southern Economic Roundtable" on this topic for an in-depth discussion, trying to uncover the reader into the world economy and the second mask, will show the real situation of China's economy in front of everyone.

China's economy will surpass Japan had not a new topic, but most new data still a stone to excite Melaleuca waves, the world's eyes once again focusing on China.

Japan Cabinet Office 16, published data show that during the second half of the year Japan real GDP by $ 12880 billion, ring than 0.1% annualised growth 0.4% weaker than expected. While China has already been announced before economic data in the first half of this year, second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) by $ 13390 billion.

Many people said that the Group of data means that more than Japan, China has become the world's second largest economy. But the voice of reason, also remind people not to indulge, because the decisions of national strength is the per capita GDP, and this data is only China Japan's 1/10.

Supporting this view, there is a set of data, the annual growth rate of China's economy is 10%, but it is expected that Japan's economic growth this year is 3%. As a rule of thumb, the Chinese economy will for seasonal reasons, in the fourth quarter to become more active, China also has the fourth-quarter more than Japan's economic output.

It was, now the second quarter was outpaced Japan, coupled with the fourth quarter of good performance, China annual output will exceed Japan, the world's second non-Chinese.

30 July, Vice Governor of the State Secretary and head of the prise said: "China in fact now is already the world's second largest economy. ”

According to statistics, from 1980, China has spent over 18 years, Germany, United Kingdom, France and other developed countries, United States, Japan has become the world's third largest economy.

Today, more than the total economy seems to be a winner in Japan, many countries began with the media are also encourages China to the world's second economic status, China will surpass the United States as the world's largest economy has also become a developed country and waimei consistent.

United Kingdom national economic and Social Research Institute report released by the end of July of this year China's economic growth rate in the United States for 11.6% 3.1%, China annual average economic growth rate of 8%, the United States for 3%, therefore, only 9 years China will surpass the United States.

The World Bank and Deutsche Bank also predicts that China will 2

020 years beyond the United States, Goldman's forecast for the year 2027, JPMorgan forecasts for 2020-2025 period.

Advocate behind demonstrated their China rising wealth of the total amount and the consequent political forces of fears, they worried that China will with his growing influence in the win over Africa has been hostile to Western countries.

Analysts believe that this also means that China will come with Western technology transfer, development assistance, the climate change negotiations difficult requirements to enjoy the benefits of developing countries.

How should we think of the total economy is the second highest in the world of fact? what are the problems China economy? and United States, Japan and other developed countries, and what are the gaps?

To this end, Nanfang daily invited yangyiyong, Zhang, zhangyansheng three experts was a guest at the "Southern Economic Roundtable" on this topic for an in-depth discussion, trying to uncover the reader into the world economy and the second mask, will show the real situation of China's economy in front of everyone.

■ Waimei sound

The New York Times: a milestone in China's economy

But it is almost unquestionable: China through the development of trade, their huge amounts of foreign exchange reserves, holders of United States bonds and on oil, coal, iron ore, and other resources of enormous appetite, began to reshape the global economy. This is one of China's economic development.

Joint morning post: important chapters in the history of the world

China's success, not only to override some of the major issues of Chinese history, the history of the world is that one of the most important chapters.

The Wall Street Journal: a ever enjoyed the status of

For still at the development of China, this is a position of never enjoyed, in bringing the joy of victory, but also to the pressure on China. Pressure greater than joy.

Asahi Shimbun: Japan influence began to Dim

Despite China's per capita income in comparison with Japan and the United States is at a very low position, but China's economic development has power to influence the world stage, while Japan's influence began to fade.

Financial times: world will adapt to a new way

China's economy in the decades that after dazzling development, in the second quarter of this year was finally over Japan to become the world's second largest economy, this is a landmark in the Chinese economy. Although the Chinese economy over Japan as early as expected, but a reality back or let people feel the vibration, the world will be reevaluating China and adapt in a new way to deal with the economic superpower.

■ Related background

China's economic development

◎ 1980, China's total economic output to 3015 billion, ranking in the world, is located in the United States, Japan, West Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy.

◎ In 1990, the Asian financial crisis affected, ranking dropped two, are Spain Canada and beyond, the tenth in the world, economic output to 7006 billion.

◎ In 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization, economic aggregate rise for 11590 billion, as the sixth in the world.

◎ 2003, because the euro's appreciation, China is ranked against hyper-Italy, dropped a bit, ranked seventh, total 13720 billion.

◎ In 2004, the China economic aggregate rise a bit world sorting, ranking the sixth position.

¡Ò 2005, China to trillions of dollars of GDP 2.229, over Italy and France, and the United Kingdom, becoming slightly more than second only to United States, Japan and Germany's fourth largest economy in the world.

◎ 2008, China's total economic output for the first time 30 trillion yuan, hyper-Germany to become the world's third largest economy.

◎ 2010, China's total economic output, the first Super Japan ranks second in the world.

■ View clash

Topic 1-China is the world's second largest economy?

Moderator: 16, Japan announced second quarter macroeconomic data display, Japan second quarter GDP12880 billion, and prior to announcement of China's second quarter GDP 13390 billion. Many people claim that China has surpassed Japan to become economic aggregate ranking second in the world's major powers.

Ask the experts, during the second half of the data could indicate China has become the world's second largest economy?

Zhangyansheng: will overtake

China is the world's second largest economy, total beyond Japan sooner or later. China's second-quarter GDP growth of 10%, Japan is 3%, to such a scale, conversion to a year, will be catching up, and this trend is that neither of them will not change.

Yangyiyong: depends on the full-year data

China's total economic output surpassing Japan is an indisputable fact, but sooner or later, and there is nothing to celebrate. GDP accounting and foreign exchange conversion and calculation of the GDP, more complex, relying on second quarter GDP data are not convincing, or data through the whole year. 12