Monday, January 3, 2011

China's trade surplus narrowed trend is expected to remain extended

China imports up speed in August is much higher then expected, export growth rate is slightly lower than expected, making this month's trade surplus narrowed. At present in Europe and demand remained weak, but domestic demand better than market prior to that judgment is expected late export material; and is the trend of declining, while imports will still depend on domestic regulation and policy implementation.

Analysts believe that August imports growth rate higher than the base factors and recent international market price of the commodity, or may shut down as a result of domestic energy conservation and emission reduction, productivity led to increased imports of the month.

On the export side, due to the current global economic structure rebuilt, United States, the EU and other main economies of resuscitation status still has great uncertainty, external demand is not possible to restore the pre-crisis high growth appears to be a foregone conclusion, most analysts expect a subsequent trend will trend down.

But there are optimistic that the export situation has improved over the years. Bohai securities macroeconomic analyst said du zhengzheng June, EU countries have adopted some relief programmes, foreign demand warmer momentum is also good, now the whole year is expected to export growth rate at 15%-20%.

Customs data at the same time show, 1-8, Chinese exports increased 35.5%, imports increased 45.5%; trade surplus 1,039 billion u.s. dollars, reduce 14.6%. Last year, China's trade surplus narrowed sharply to 1900 billion.

To import the progressive recovery, the rest of this year will continue within the trade surplus narrowed to render.

Department of Commerce Minister Chen Deming, previously known as China's foreign trade policy is still the stable increase of export and import.

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