Before 2010 (ninth) China entrepreneur Summit held in Beijing, this annual meeting by China Entrepreneur magazine and jointly sponsored by China entrepreneur Club. The Conference "new business, a new impetus to new consensus," as its theme, 800 industry leaders around the "' 12% ' planning and corporate strategy," "China will appear ' lost decade '?" and "overseas mergers and acquisitions: Chinese buyers how to sail" 18 focus topics discussed.
Does not appear on the "lost decade"
"China will not simply repeat Japan so-called ' lost decade '. "Institute of Ministry of finance, Japan economic gukang thinks problems is industrialized reached very high levels of urbanization reaches 80%, and China's urbanization indicators are a lot of people think is overestimated, only 46.6%.
Gukang said that China's economic growth in the stage features on Japan with breath at that time. He believes that currently discussing this problem is to go back to China in and gold development period with the period of prominent contradictions, from this conflict and its potential threat to this point.
Aetna and Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of management, Dean zhoulin also believes that from a macro fundamentals, China today and then Japan still vary considerably. China's advantage may also be able to last for many years. For example, Japan at the time of consumption in the macroeconomic component has more than 60%, and China is now less than 40%.
"The China and Japan, and then say the Chinese appear Japan ' lost decade ' of the proposition itself is a false proposition. "JPMorgan Asia Pacific Managing Director Gong side-view, do not simply go to Japan, China and Japan analogy analogy also too early.
Gong party says that if China's economy has found the transformation of a turning point, the next decade should be to China's economic golden decade, not so-called ' lost decade ', the next ten years than in the past decade. He believes that China's urbanization rate very low, the next ten years of China's urbanization will continue to promote economic progress towards the next stage.
Many challenges still
Still, but current China and Japan also exist at the time of many similarities. These similarities, many are on China's economic and social development challenges.
Zhoulin said, there are also many similarities, especially on the mentality of the asset bubble. The total amount that Japan real estate to 2 times the United States, but the vast majority of people in Japan does not think there's a bubble. At present, China's domestic many people also think that housing prices are still rising.
Zhoulin warned that if the treatment is not good, really formed a bubble, the last bubble burst causing paralysis of the financial system, on China's future economic development may be a negative role in this regard, the Government in the formulation of macroeconomic policies to be cautious.
Although agree that China over the next 10 years will not appear Japan's "lost decade" of the situation, but Tianjin Port (Group) co., Ltd to Yu-Min attitude some caution. In Yu-min said, first of all, the first 30 years of development has gone to the extreme, China is now faced with changing the way of development; second, although China is now the world's second largest economy, but the lack of similar Honda, Nissan, Sony, Toshiba, and other competitive enterprises; third, the experts forecast in five years later, China's labor supply will fall, this problem should be said that more than once in Japan.
Gong side-hung also said China's now face is to not appear in Latin America, the so-called "middle-income trap". "Middle-income trap" is the per capita GDP to reach $ 5000, and occurs when GDP per capita in China and now has reached 4000 dollars or so; in addition, China is facing economic restructuring and adjustment.
Establish a good economic environment
In Yu-Min, in order to avoid going to like the South American countries such as per capita income of us $ GDP3000 "trap" the way out is, in accordance with the central State "12 five" plans, changes in the way of economic development. Stimulating domestic demand, innovation, creating a large number of internationally competitive enterprises.
"In order to avoid a similar situation, the Government of Japan in the formulation of macroeconomic policies should remain on the policy of stability, continuity, this point is very important. "To the Yu-Min, Japan has entered the" lost decade ", which macro-policy decision-making is a major problem.
In Yu-min is of the opinion that the Government should put the main focus on the creation of a very good economic environment conducive to China's enterprises to improve their own competitiveness, while leveraging the development of gold in China, to speed up the "going out".
"To prevent China asset bubbles, countries have to open more channels. "Zhoulin believes that private capital must let it have a place to go. Open to the civil monetary, slowly allow various monopolistic industry to private capital into, so they can get to these industry chain, instead of entering the stock market bubble formation assets.
DeLong holdings co., Ltd., Chairman of Board of Directors, said the country would lose the future does not appear on the "ten years", it is necessary to open up markets, developing national entrepreneurs; to let people share over the past decade, wealth, cultivate a large number of middle class.
Gong Party-recommends that the Government level, macro level must adhere to the system innovation, adhere to the reform and opening up, persist in developing solutions to problems. At the same time, Chinese entrepreneurs coming to seize the opportunities of economic transition. Over the past decade is the scale of development is to quantify development, but the next ten years, do you want to do fine, which the key is to get good brand technology and resources.
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