October imports ring than large reduction of trade surplus invasive year high

Analysts said surplus of high pressure will increase the appreciation of the Renminbi

Customs data shows announced yesterday, China's imports and exports in October of this year amounted to $ 2448.1 billion, up 24%. Exports 1359.8 billion, an increase of 22.9% slower than the previous month 2.2 percentage; import 1088.3 billion, an increase of 25.3%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points last month. This month's exports and imports decreased central than 6.2% and 15%. As a result of imports of ring than drop is large, the month of October, the trade surplus from 168 million in the previous month to 271.5 billion, as the second highest point during the year, significantly more than the market expected.

Data show that from January to October, China's imports and exports worth $ 23934.1 billion, an increase of 36.3%, import and export size has been exceeded last year's level. Where export 12705.9 billion, an increase of 32.7%; import 11228.2 billion 40.5 percent; the trade surplus of $ 1477.7, reduce 6.7%.

Analysts said the next few months, the trade surplus might be narrow, but will remain high, this will force the Bank continues to invest money, at the same time to bring the Renminbi appreciation pressure. CICC research report, October trade surplus rebounded to 271.5 billion, higher than the market expected. Future with domestic demand further stabilised again, still weak recovery in external demand, the trade surplus might be narrow, but will remain high.

Haitong securities macroeconomic analyst, Wang Hui November exports declining channel, but the decline rate limited exports growth or equaled with the month of October, the month of November is expected to increase in exports and imports growth 22.3 35.4% surplus dropped compared with the month of October, but may still be maintained at 200 billion.

Northeast securities considered, November, December, the trade surplus is expected to remain at around 200 billion u.s. dollars, the whole year is expected to more than 1800 trade surplus.

In the US Federal Reserve launched a second round of quantitative easing monetary policy, the RMB increasingly affected by market concerned, and the foreign trade surplus is undoubtedly increased the high appreciation of the Renminbi pressure.

CICC, surplus high will continue to bring the appreciation of the Renminbi pressure, it is expected that the Renminbi exchange rate for the next 12 months will be increased by 3%-4%, this also means that USD cross rate generally stable, the appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar will be 3%-4%.