September and export value of a record surplus drops to lowest level in five months

Surplus drops to lowest level in five months, the expected slowdown in export growth will continue

Customs, September 13, import and export data show that September, China's foreign trade and export value reached 2731 billion, an increase of 24.7% ring than growth 5.6% to a record high. Which imports of $ 1281.1 billion, an increase of 24.1% ring than 7.4 percent, also all-time high. While export growth than only central 4.1 percent, to $ 1449.9, resulting in the September month surplus drops to lowest level in five months, $ 168.8.

The industry says that China's economic external imbalances pressure eased, but the future extension of the world economy, the weak recovery devaluation of national currencies, it is expected that first emerged in export growth slowdown will continue.

"The September month surplus down to the last five months and the lowest point, that have multiple meanings. "Professor of Renmin University of China School of Economics, wangjin bin in the acceptance of the information daily law reporter said the RMB exchange rate appreciation pressure facing, European, American and Japanese economic recovery efforts have slowed down trends, plus domestic wage increases, this triple factors determine export slowdown. Secondly, the steady growth in domestic demand and foreign pressures, the Chinese imports increased. These factors resulted in a gradual reduction of trade surplus.

"Surplus reduction indicated that China's economy to external pressure imbalance, but due to the slowdown continues to be a surplus, the total amount of external imbalances continued to increase. "Wangjin bin said.

China's foreign trade in September this year, the export growth rate is already the fourth consecutive month drop in September, China on the ASEAN exports count 114.83 million year-over-year growth rate of 4 consecutive months down to 12.81%; September China on EU and United States exports count 288.02 billion and 269.78 billion, an increase from August 34.35% and 35.39% downturn to September 27.37 27.52 percent.

Bank of Communications Center for financial research fellows-Lu Chi-ming in acceptance of the information daily law reporter noted that export growth to drop by the main reasons are the following two points: first, the export share of total exports to ASEAN downturn. This and the recent ASEAN general economic overheating temperature. Second, although the debt crisis of the slowdown in Europe and the European economic recovery in the continuation of the vulnerable, but the economy short term minor second exploratory bottom pressure still exist, especially in Europe and China trade friction is still increasing trend.

Quarter of China's foreign trade is still facing great challenges that the industry is expected to import and export growth will continue to become more stable. From the world economic situation, at present, Japan, Korea and Brazil, and other major emerging market economies have been taking unilateral foreign exchange market intervention measures to limit local currency appreciation pressure of agglomeration quickly.

Lu Zhi-ming pointed out the need for vigilance States currency devaluation brought about by the growth in exports. This will extend the world economy vulnerable recovery periods of time while also affect international import and export trade.

While the recovery trend in developed countries vulnerable to improvements in the short term, it will exert pressure on China's exports. E.g., United States, Japan economic performance continues to slump, United States Manufacturing PMI index from the August 56.30 back down to 9 month 54.40; Japan Manufacturing PMI index from the August 50.10 continue to come down to 9 month 49.50.

"In addition, Europe and the United States to promote national export industry economic recovery and future trade friction is still in the growing trend of China's export growth will be affected by a measure of suppression. "Lu Chi-ming said that export growth is expected in October stabilized, fourth quarter growth rate of around 30%, trade surplus will continue to hold steady.

Western securities analysis pointed out that China's exports in the coming months will drop significantly, and PMI shows China's economic growth has stabilized will contribute to the growth of China's imports, China's trade surplus in the coming months will quickly come down.

Wangjin bin that surplus will continue to reduce uncertainty. "Due to domestic economic growth rate in slowdown, this trend will continue into next year a second quarter, then on import demand may be reduced, which also leads to an increase in the trade surplus, of course, also depend on exports. ”