South Korea free trade area is expected to win the differences have larger agricultural negotiations in the most difficult to

South Korea free trade zone joint research in the first round meeting recently in Seoul, Korea. Third country competent trade commerce Deputy Ministers attended the Conference, and announced the launch of "FTA" joint feasibility study.

The State Council as early as 2003 to proceed to the "Japan-Korea free trade zone," a study on the feasibility of national project, Japan, Korea Research Institute is established in South Korea FTA free trade agreements are also a few years of study, to may of this year a feasibility study to the Crown. You can say "FTA" is looking forward to many years. Now, with the three countries, free trade zone official industry-university joint research's official launch, as soon as the free trade area, will be a cover 15 million population, total economic output accounted for 70% in Asia, second only to the North American free trade area and the EU's third-largest free trade area.

Three brothers-and win-win

ROK, economy of scale of the whole of East Asia, and a 90% of today's world economic map "one of the three legs". In recent years, the rapid rise in trade between the three countries directly contributed to macroeconomic growth. Department of Commerce press spokesman Yao Jian in the assessment of the feasibility study-Korea free trade area, said the feasibility study on the economic and trade relations between China and South Korea is a major event in the East Asian integration is an important event in the process, will contribute to regional economic development, to any third country companies and people to create greater interest.

China, Japan, Korea economic output respectively ranked second in Asia, the first and fourth. South Korea bilateral trade amounted to approximately $ 200 billion, of which China is Korea's largest trading partner, is Japan's second largest trading partner, Japan is Korea's second largest trading partner, with bilateral trade accounted for their share of total trade volume is rising year by year. Concluded, the establishment of a free trade area of the three countries to eliminate barriers to trade, the expansion of regional markets, promoting economic integration, achieve win-win in three countries.

Department of Commerce's Institute of international trade and economic cooperation in Asia-Pacific Research Center Director Xu Chang Wen accepts China Economic Times reporter believes that in the current WTO process slow, free trade area is to promote economic and trade relations between the parties and all the best. South Korea as the East Asian region of three important countries, their economic dependence on increasingly expensive.

Institute of Asia-Pacific Research Institute, Dr. Shen Ming-hui in China economic times reporters that South Korea free trade area with very important symbolic significance, the three countries for economic and trade cooperation reached a high degree of consensus. Although the current free trade zone only in civil research phase, but for future cooperation with third countries.

Whether in natural resources, labour or knowledge resources, the three countries forming the production factors on the comparative advantages of different, fully equipped to achieve trade conditions and win. In the industrial structure, industrial advantages, determine the third countries in goods trade does not exist significant competitive relationship, but there is a strong foundation for cooperation. Japan and Korea in capital-and technology-intensive industry, competitive advantage is obvious, but the competitive advantage of China's main focus on resources and the labour-intensive products.

Shen Ming-hui told reporters: "according to estimates, if you had signed the FTA will give China 47 billion — 64 billion of revenue, promoting the growth of GDP 1.1% — 2.9%; bring to Japan — 74 67 billion dollars of income, contributing to GDP growth 0.1% — 0.5%; to bring Korea 114 billion — 263 million revenues, and boost GDP growth 2.5% — 3.1%. This difference will vary by industry, and the calculation of income just static, does not include trade and other proceeds benefit staging. ”

Department of State Development Research Center of the Ministry of foreign economic research and analysis to journalists, lvgang model calculation of limitations, the actual possibility of benefits will be far greater than the model calculations.

In addition to internal factors promoting, South Korea free trade area of the building also has a push from external factors. "Out of the internal areas in China, Japan and Korea, respectively, these three countries and a number of countries have signed bilateral free trade agreements, if third countries and free trade has been vacant, this will result in the loss of comparative advantage. "Shen-Ming-hui said.

Third party differences larger agricultural negotiations in the most difficult to

Department of Commerce press spokesman Yao Jian said recently, free trade zone joint feasibility study work will last about two years, is expected to be completed in 2012, as the free trade area in the next building to basic research and fundamental judgement. China hopes that the three countries, industry-university joint research on free trade area, in a flexible and pragmatic principles to complete as soon as possible, so as to promote economic cooperation between the three countries.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce International Division is the lead organization this negotiation. While States have clearly established free trade area is good for the future of a good thing, "but the interests of all parties, the great game of differences are very difficult process, negotiations will be full of ups and downs. "Shen Ming fai finds, first, Japan and Korea are afraid of China's agricultural products, the impact on them, and China, Japan and South Korea on the services sector and concern in the area of investment. Second, China, Japan and South Korea with a processing network, their trade mainly related to the finished product, they formed is not a consumer market. In addition, semi-finished goods tariffs itself is very low or even zero tariff, from this perspective, the driving force behind the establishment of free trade area.

Investment agreement is likely to be among the first to sign, in the interest of the Japanese and Korean is large, and China service, investment areas of relatively weak competitiveness, trade in goods likely to delay check.

Three countries the level of economic development and structural differences, this is an important negotiating difficult. China belongs to the developing countries, Japan is a developed country, Korea belong to the newly industrialized countries. Development gap between the State of liberalisation of trade will be relevant to the national industrial caused greater impact, economic structure, the more obvious differences, countries need to be of economic restructuring, the higher the degree, the interests of different social groups of more profound, and face social pressure and resistance.

Agriculture should be negotiating the largest of the "challenges". Lvgang said, ROK agriculture insurance

Retaining more serious, if Japan and South Korea have been unwilling to open up agricultural markets, the comparative advantage of China's agricultural products will not be able to play. ROK, if it is not possible to reach consensus on agricultural issues, which will be the formation of the free trade area in a big bottleneck.

From external resistance, "East Asian cooperation has been able to escape before the United States, said that the United States return to Asia, in fact, the United States has never been out of Asia, the United States has been--and actively promote partnerships across the Pacific to disintegrate the cooperation in East Asia, which is very challenging. "Shen-Ming-hui said.

To this end, Xu long article reminds that the United States to take into account external factors in the three countries to reach a consensus.

There are also political factors. Although South Korea has a long history of transactions, but also has a considerable history of neighbor scores. Coupled with the DPRK and the United States, as of today, political "doubt" is still to the relationship between the three countries bring confusion and become the next barrier to free trade cooperation. Japan's attitude is "positive and fear", analysts believe that Japan's fear is largely a brother in Asia "," the throne return who issues.

Shen Hui-Ming said that although the political issues are not in trade negotiations was mentioned, but it will on all sides of the important impact of mutual trust. As China's economic strength, seen in China and Korea are also mental changes, on the one hand, from China's growth in interest, on the other hand also worried that China's strengths will pose a threat to themselves, this ambivalence is bound to the economic and trade cooperation to increase many uncertain factors.

"Domestic and regional cooperation, or international regional cooperation should not be a dominant mindset. "Xu Chang Wen said," in promoting regional cooperation, in the analysis of advantages and disadvantages for national cooperation relations, to fully take into account the interests of each other, otherwise it is difficult to promote cooperation. In addition, cooperation should also take full account of the interests of small and medium-sized enterprises and farmers. ”