This week, a Department of Commerce's annual press conference, press spokesman for the Department of Commerce maintains that while Yao, China and Greece's trade in EU trade accounts for only a small percentage, but the overall economic situation in Europe is also affected by the sovereign debt crises of the drag. "Suppose Europe high debt and low growth trend, on China's entire export industry. And RMB against the dollar to the euro on Chinese enterprises export costs enormous pressure. ”
Similarly, the Department of commerce international economic trade Dean Hogg's founding in "the financial crisis and the economic recovery," the workshop told reporters that the future for a period of time, developed economies, economic recovery and relatively slow will rebound in China's export directly. "European sovereign debt crisis could affect the overall process of economic recovery in Europe, this will be detrimental to the growth of China's exports. ”
Shadow on export prospects
In Yao Jian, Greece's debt crisis will cause exports to China, mainly in three respects:
First, the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, financial markets and the stock market fluctuations, due to the relatively large market confidence, in turn, delay the process of global economic recovery. It was possible to predict the global economy would be in high debt, low growth phase, market demand will continue. "In this context, the global economic growth may slow out of the crisis process prolonged accordingly. ”
Secondly, "it was predicted by sovereign debt, this year the euro area growth of only 1%-1.5%. Because the EU is China's largest export market, China trade size of 16%, this would have on the whole of China's exports. ”
Thirdly, European sovereign debt crises are also on the stability of the euro. "This year, as of May 14, the cumulative renminbi appreciation of the euro is 14.5%. As our main export market, the most important trade partner among the 5 months appreciation 14.5%, will give the Chinese exporters enormous cost pressures on trade policy adjustments. ”
Joel's founding is considered the impact of the crisis on exported mainly from the effect on the stability of the euro. Although as Greece debt crisis "by-products", sustained depreciation of the euro for the euro area countries export expansion is good news, but this has weakened the Chinese manufacturing competitiveness in the European market. RMB exchange rate against the euro has risen considerably, to the middle price calculation, half a year to the appreciation of the Renminbi against the euro by more than 10%, China on EU export situation even more critical. Special mainly Mechatronics enterprises, because exports of electromechanical products accounted for more than half.
CICC publications in the latest issue of macroeconomic reports that Greece's debt crisis and contagion risks may affect China's exports, while in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain five exports accounted for only 3.5% of China's exports, but the entire EU accounted for 17% of China's exports, is China's largest export destination, but monetary and credit market conditions than the real economic impact on Chinese exports more requires vigilance. 2008 Chinese exports decline speed significantly faster than the speed of trading partners economic decline, precisely because the foreign importer obtaining trade finance, and therefore should not be overlooked.
Chinese enterprises should be done early
The EU is Quanzhou most important export market. According to Quanzhou customs statistics, last year, exports to the EU 15.2 billion, an increase of 6.8%, ranked the city main EU exporters.
"Several of the already talked about, the recent European guests suddenly sent a mail delay orders. "Quanzhou territoriale a slipper Chen told reporters that recently Italy and Spain, and other countries, customers have to stay the order, which has a single customer is requesting extension of Greece shipment, these are old customers, is also the company's main customer. "Greece's debt crisis has an impact on the enterprise, although the present order, but once Greece debt crisis spread to the whole of Europe, leading to a sharp drop in orders, the third and fourth quarter orders situation is worrying. ”
Data display, 2009 EU bilateral trade volume reaches 3641 billion, accounting for China's global 16.5% of total foreign trade. Among them, China on EU export 2362.8 billion, accounting for China's total exports 19.7%. The impact of the economic crisis affected last year, China exported to Europe, and the sharp drop in 19.4% 2010 China on EU export prospects will undoubtedly because Greece debt crisis will be a shadow over.
Joel press is directly on the founding of the prediction that "European sovereign debt crisis for China's foreign trade in very serious. It is expected that in May and June, and even entire third quarter performance would be more clear, I'm European export growth rate may decrease 6%-7%. ”
"The euro declines, the trade will have a great impact. "Homer state that while the current, from the data on European exports also maintained a rapid growth, but this kind of response will lag phase, and the most affected will be the mechanical and electrical enterprise.
Quanzhou toys export Enterprise boss told reporters that they received the order of 60% from Spain and other European countries, "including the cooperation of European customers for many years, all customers must be prepaid prior to the order of 30%-50% of the purchase price so that it can effectively reduce the risk of recovery of the purchase price. ”
The boss for many years engaged in trade with Europe, he reminded, currently has in hand Greece and other countries order Quanzhou export enterprise should, as soon as possible to recover the money as quickly as possible, while also trying to avoid the frequent use of exchange rate fluctuations, the adoption of the euro exchange rate more stable US dollar, and through the forward exchange rate, export credit insurance, etc., will be the exchange rate fluctuation risks to a minimum. "In addition, the enterprise to pay attention to the preservation and Greece and other countries, customers travelling to and from the message, if the breach occurs, the messages can be used as valid evidence that enterprises can through legal means to protect their own interests. ”
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