There was often no co-existence, the first lead of the industrial revolution in the British Empire, after World War II as the early United States why world factory are embarked on the road of industrial hollowing? which has profound logic. Obama's "national export program," ambitious "commercial diplomacy strategy" means, however, to a market economy, but also to maintain financial hegemony, also want to maintain manufacturing status, is impossible to achieve. We should strive to take full advantage of the opportunities it may bring.
To face aftermath unfinished global economic and financial crisis, facing the asset market expansion foam has been back in the real economy sector recovers far behind, Obama bet to the economic growth model above, but the direction and the requirements of his Chinese opposite: increased reliance on export-led growth in the manufacturing and the entire economy. According to the March of the export plan, the United States doubled in five years exports doubled, the creation of 200 000 jobs, to this end a series of measures:
-A substantial increase in export enterprises in particular small and medium-sized enterprises in trade financing. Last year, the export-import bank granting the loan 210 billion, an increase of about 50%. According to "the State export plan", the White House will continue to improve the export-import bank's trade finance, including $ 2 billion per year specifically for new trade loans for SMEs.
— — Provides "one-stop" export promotion services. Obama has signed Executive order, established by the Department of State, Ministry of finance, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of agriculture, trade representative office, small business Department and the export-import Bank and other sector leaders "export promotion Cabinet", which will be submitted to the President within half a year the use of public-private ventures help exporters open new market's specific plans to consolidate after as "the State export program" strategy of external announcement. Secretary of State Hillary is promoting "commercial diplomacy", all United States embassies in creating advanced visitor services co-ordinators to expand export opportunities to the host; Commerce Secretary Locke also busy to senior officials of the United States all foreign publications on the promotion of guidelines for export.
– By promoting multilateral, bilateral and regional trade negotiations, more strictly enforce United States trade laws to ensure that the company can be free and fair access to markets overseas. To do this, Obama proposed to reform the United States export control system, and hoped that better take into account the following double objective: control the core technology of United States to ensure the safety of United States export and to strengthen international United States critical industry market competitiveness.
Many people worry that the United States more reliance on manufacturing export-led economic growth, may have on the number one exporter in China. However, from the United States global political and economic status, from the United States industrial development pattern on the background, you can find, as a country's oil industry development often results in the manufacturing industry is moribund "Netherlands", disease United States financial hegemony will also inhibits the development of its manufacturing potential.
1970s, Beihai discover significant oil and gas fields, old energy-importing countries Netherlands jumped into natural gas exporter, safe and spent two oil crises of the angry. However, it was not long before, immersed in the natural gas export income rolling stimulated in the Netherlands were not embarrassed to discover that their long-pride of manufacturing into a depression. Also, the more we expand natural gas production, manufacturing industry, the more depressed, gas income growth and export manufacturing development both seem to eat your cake and eat it, therefore, international economics was born a noun — "Netherlands disease" (DutchDisease). Coincidentally, United Kingdom, Norway, Australia, Mexico ... Where large-scale development of newly discovered natural resources of the country, no one survives "invasion of the Netherlands sickness".
Even within one country the economic development of the region, it is not difficult to find the "case of the Netherlands sickness". China's coal Erdos, Inner Mongolia and other mineral resources are abundant, 98% of the land under the coal mines, in this round of commodity bull market, mainly by coal mining and power industries downstream, the rapid growth in the Ordos total economic output, so that the Ordos 100 million population of prefectural-level cities, with $ 60 billion surplus capital, the scale of the civil society in the country are numbered, but its original cashmere sweater, manufacturing is a heavy blow, as Chinese cashmere industry representatives on the one hand, Ordos Group had tried to maintain existing cashmere industry, on the other hand use in cashmere industry gained brand gets capital, large-scale access to coal, metallurgical and other industries.
"The Netherlands disease" is through the attack of two mechanisms:
Oil revenues on non-petroleum industry's first combat through exchange rate mechanism. Oil export earnings growth, accompanied by substantial inflows of oil and the dollar, oil-exporting countries increasingly strong currency. Imperceptibly, oil-exporting countries non-petroleum products price even if the price does not rise to the local currency, in the international market, denominated also gone up, and imported products to local currency prices are falling. Exchange rate against guochanhuo price competitiveness, customers tend to buy foreign goods, buy oil exports might.
Win the labor force (especially high-quality labor) and the capital and other factors of production, is the oil industry gives non-petroleum industry in the second blow. Because of the ability to offer higher wages, export oil sector attracting highly qualified labor force, disproportionate; as a result of higher profit margins, is able to pay a higher interest, dividends, the oil sector to absorb more loans, investments, the oil industry to the stagnation of the non-oil industry at the expense of achieving its expansion. Poland-born Economist Ray nebrensky to concise economics language which summarized as: has the expansion potential of the sector to mobilize the competitiveness of the productive factors than other sectors. This is the international economics in the famous Torre bobrzynski theorem.
Financial hegemony is the United States the highest economic hegemony, but seeing the "Netherlands", disease revisit United States financial hegemony, similarly you can find similar inhibitory mechanisms: due to the manufacturing sector holds financial hegemony, the United States financial services industry to provide much higher wages and profits, which in turn attract more talent and capital invested in the financial industry and non-manufacturing; due to our knowledge of financial hegemony,
Every time of the outbreak of the global crisis, the global market will appear on the wave to escape the dollar ", the US dollar is in a weak after a strong recovery. First leading the industrial revolution of the British Empire, after World War II as the early United States why world factory are embarked on the road of industrial hollowing? which has profound logic.There was often no co-existence and the market economy, but also to maintain financial hegemony, also want to maintain manufacturing status, is impossible to achieve. As such, we then why on Obama's "national export plan" too worried? it is better to take full advantage of the opportunities it may bring. (Department of Commerce's international trade and economic cooperation Research Institute researcher Mei Xinyu)
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