Foreign trade-by-quarter growth rate in the second half was straining under the stairs

The sand down the weak foreign demand forced the export structure optimization

With the first half of the economy to produce beautiful results, for the second half of the emerging economic worries. Yesterday, the Center published report is expected in the second half of China's import and export growth, the desk-to-quarter slowdown. On the other hand, the fixed asset investment growth will also further down, macroeconomic or will face the need to slow down at the same time, both inside and outside of the risk.

16 October, Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out that the world economy is still great uncertainty, it is necessary to expand domestic demand and stable foreign demand, both on the driveway. This stance, to speculate on the policies it will turn to relax?, Standard Chartered Bank that, despite the risks, both inside and outside the desired deceleration but economic growth is still high, the second half of the policy to relax. In addition, Europe and America needs a weak, which in turn prompted China to emerging economies, trade, export structure.

Foreign demand subdued export growth or case-by-quarter slowdown

Recently, the Center published report is expected in the second half of China's import and export growth, the desk-to-quarter slowdown. In international commodity prices and high stability, domestic investment demand slowing down in the second half of China's import growth, will gradually callback to 19.3% during the same period, under the influence of high cardinality, fourth quarter will be in full-year growth rate of imports.

Report of the year base, euro debt crisis, rebate policy adjustments, and other factors, it is expected that the export growth rate in the second half is 16.3%. From a structural point of view, 5, 6 month, exists to Rob gateway export impulse of the "two gaoyizi" products in the policy context: export growth will gradually decline, Chinese export commodities structure will be optimized. Throughout the year, is expected to export 24.5%, import growth 33.6%.

Slowdown in the second half of exports, is the universal judgement. Although the import and export of high 6 month record, but the majority of institutions deemed export recovery in the first half of the peak, unsustainable. Shanghai Securities analyst huyuexiao in 12, entitled "surplus increased cannot disguise the fact that foreign demand weak trend of the second half yanbao that China will face growing weak foreign demand.

Export, except for July 15 will cancel two gaoyizi "commodity export tax rebate policy to accelerate export in June, the European debt crisis lagged effects of, and appreciation of the Renminbi, will be the formation of the second half of the exports.

Importation, import growth starting from the month of April has been declined for three consecutive months, March, April, may and June of year-over-year growth rate of imports respectively 66.1%, 49.7%, 48.3 34.1 percent. Huyuexiao analysis, as China's unprecedented in the month of April, the harsh real estate regulation policy implementation, as well as local financing platform cleanup, my investment demand has slowed, steel, copper and other bulk commodities demand a more substantial decline. July 8, Baltic integrated freight index closing in 2018, continuous 32 days decline reflects on commodity demand slowdown, China's import growth is still a certain space for downlink.

Due to the slowdown in domestic demand for investment result in the reduction of import growth of trade surplus expanded, and will increase the pressure of RMB, RMB will further increase the difficulty of exports, lower export growth. Huyuexiao is expected, in a variety of factors, under the influence of the interaction, China import and export growth in the next few months will face greater pressure.

Domestic consumption stimulus abatement fixed asset investment slowdown

Weak foreign demand, also at risk in the second half of the domestic demand, the growth rate of imports from the above three consecutive months, than decline Central discerned. Moreover, the trend of fixed asset investment down. In June, urban fixed assets investment up 24.9 percent, lower than the 5 month 25.4% 5 month and less than 4 month 25.6%.

State of the market economy Institute of the General Director of the research authors think that Deng Yu song, in the second half of the fixed asset investment growth rate will decline further. He analyzed, as this year's expenditure declined, the growth of government investment projects have begun to decline, the second half of this trend will continue. Subject to real estate regulation policy impact, since may start real estate sales growth, rapid decline from rule of real estate market fluctuations, the sales decrease in 3-6 months, real estate investment growth rate will begin to fall, according to the judgment of the fourth quarter growth rate of real estate investment will begin to come down, as a real estate investment accounting for the proportion of urban fixed assets investment exceeds 20%, real estate investment growth rate of decline will further intensify investment growth downward pressure, and thus result in some iron and steel, building materials, and other energy intensive industries demand growth rate of decline.

In addition, guangfa securities macroeconomic research fellow and others, in the second half of the local financing platform cleanup will result in the transportation and public facilities investment continue to slow down. European debt crisis, the appreciation of the Renminbi pressure, a substantial increase in the minimum wage standards, strict control excess capacity and other factors will enable manufacturing investment faced pressure reducer.

From here, and others that run in the second half of China's economy or domestic demand and foreign demand slowdown overlay risk.

Slowdown risk controllable export structure optimization

16 July, Wen Jiabao visits a production enterprise of Apple, noted that "from Apple export market changes can be seen in the world economy changed, and now the world economy began to recover, there are still many uncertainties, it is necessary to expand domestic demand and foreign demand must be stable, they can be neglected. "This discourse so that public opinion in the second half, in the face of slowing demand both inside and outside of risk, whether there will be policy change?

To this end, Standard Chartered Bank economic analysis shili-accept South are reporters that, despite the risks, both inside and outside the desired deceleration but economic growth remains high, the second half of the policy to relax. Economist, author representation yetan recently, a new round of economic stimulus policies unnecessary, and the effects of unsatisfactory.

Li Wei analysis, a relative slowdown in foreign demand, the domestic demand slowdown effects on policy. But at present the domestic economy slows, mainly policy-driven, and with a higher base last year. In fact, my real

Despite the decline in economic growth, is still above the rate of natural increase. Moreover, the strong economic production activities, in particular employment, no signs of slowing down.

In external demand, according to Standard Chartered Bank estimates, the actual growth rate in the second half of exports will be 25%, while compared to the first half of the decline, but is still relatively high growth. In addition, the impact of external demand is the key to Europe's economy, at present, although the judgment of the Occident consistent economic slowdown, but slowed down to what extent there is no consensus on the degree to which Chinese exports are difficult to reach a conclusion. At Standard Chartered Bank, as long as Europe and sustained economic recovery, even if the recovery speed slowdown is not terrible, the impact of China's exports are controllable range.

Moreover, Europe and the United States to the economic downturn, in turn, also facilitate export structure optimization. Customs statistics show that during the first half of the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN amounted to $ 1364.9 billion, up 54 percent; China and Brazil bilateral trade amounted to $ 263.9 million, an increase of 60.3%. Shanghai Securities analyst huyuexiao believes that China's trade for developing countries on the rise, the difference between the basic to deficit, indicating that the field has a bright future, diversified development of China's trade partners in the ascendant. The State also believes that emerging economies exports increase, United States, and other major trading partners and trade dependency is declining.