RMB on a limited impact on China trade

Sweden enskil Bank (SEB) Chief Strategy analyst HenrikMitelman recently said, the expected margin of appreciation of the renminbi is not very large, even on some currency devaluation occurs, the RMB to Northern Europe and China trade limited impact.

In addition, due to lower debt levels in Northern Europe, the fundamentals of better, euro debt crisis is now on the Scandinavian influence, while Asia become drivers of Nordic economies. However, the euro area, the problem may not be quickly restored in the second half of the euro against the US dollar continues to depreciate 2%.

HenrikMitelman recently in media interviews, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Norway and other Scandinavian countries, low levels of debt. From 2009, the Government debt to GDP ratio, the developed countries is 110% of the Nordic countries is 60%, while developing countries minimum, only 30%-40%.

In addition, China and Germany was the main export countries in Northern Europe, China, Germany and the second. While emerging markets in Nordic countries accounted for a large proportion, but Asia become Nordic economic driver, which is also affected by the financial crisis in Northern Europe is relatively small.

Recently, the Renminbi exchange rate regime restart led to market on Chinese and European countries trade concerns. To this end, the Department Chief SEB Exchange JoachimAlpen said the US dollar against other currencies of the recent appreciation of the Renminbi future fluctuation range will be limited, but the Chinese Central Bank has just announced the RMB is not pegged to the dollar only, and is pegged to a basket currency, the Renminbi or certain depreciation are possible.

HenrikMitelman also argued that, since the margin of appreciation of the Renminbi, therefore on China and the effect on trade between Northern Europe limited. In addition, as the euro to go soft, Germany's export competitiveness will improve. He expected that by the end of the EUR/USD will continue to go soft 2%.

HenrikMitelman also indicated that although the challenge from Greece, the euro area the situation is not quickly recovered, but the debt crisis in the European Union on the national political absolute support, these countries do not need to send notes to obtain funds directly to the Central Bank borrowing, so on these debt recovery optimism.