Euro crisis for China's textile industry export impact analysis?

2008 international financial turmoil has just passed soon, 2010 for the month of April, the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly again United States, and with the European Union of sovereign debt crises of spread, resulting in a euro crisis, this once again raises fears of China's textile industry.

The European textile and clothing exports of China is an important market, while the depreciation of the euro from the beginning of April to the present, because of the RMB exchange rate is pegged to the dollar, the euro has passive RMB appreciation of 14%, without a doubt be on China's textile and garment exports have a certain impact. But the shock? we can to 2009 data as the basis for a simple analysis. (The following analysis is analysis of export dependence degree of dependence on imports is not analysis)

1. textile industry export dependence 2009

Table: 2009 textile industry simple export dependence

Industry

Sales value (current prices)

Export delivery value (current prices)

Export dependence

2009

2009

The textile industry

371670682

74548240

20.06

The textile industry

224740732

37769559

16.81

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101845096

33752298

33.14

Chemical fiber manufacturing

38686043

2570973

6.65

Textile equipment

6398811

455410

7.12

The table is only a simple dependency calculation, textile industry export dependence 20.06% in 2009, it looks not much. But this simple calculation that does not reveal the true external dependence of textile industry. Because, from the product chain perspective, the only textile clothing, shoes, Cap, consumer goods, manufacturing is a terminal that is relatively 33.14% is more credible. There are textile equipment, the absence of a second export issues, the 7.12% is credible. Whereas the textile fabric is not only its own existence external direct export, manufacturing into textiles and garments, shoes, Cap after the issue of indirect exports. So in order to obtain more accurate information, the following on each branch for a more in-depth analysis.

1. textiles, clothing, shoes, hat manufacturing

The above said to the textile and clothing, footwear manufacturing 33.14% of external dependence is relatively credible, say one relative, because there are a number of factors need to be taken into consideration. Because our sales value is calculated using a market order, that is, a variable price, or price. As enterprises are aware, the export price is less than the clothing domestic sales prices, this is because the export volume is large, and lower cost of sales. So the same products in the domestic market sales price is higher than the export price, for a brand to own part of the enterprise, the domestic market of sales prices to much higher than the export price. So yield to export dependency, must be greater than the amount of dependency, it is estimated that about 40 percent, but due to the current lack of clothing enterprise data import ratio and other relevant data, so this is also difficult to quantify.

If you follow the few

Quantity, according to the China National Institute of statistics published data, the scale of the whole year 2009 more enterprises in our country to complete the garment production 237.50 million, according to customs statistics, 2009 Chinese clothing and clothing accessories export 259.82 million. Customs statistics of exports is higher than the annual yield statistics publication, although customs statistics of exports and production of the statistical data may be different, but the size is also a side note, if the quantity perspective, the apparel industry's export dependence is greater than our simple calculated 33.14%.

2, textile industry

Direct export of textile industry in addition to the fabric, the domestic part of the fabric to make a costume, etc Terminal products second export. So the textiles export dependence should be:

3, chemical fiber

Similarly, because not only have direct export of chemical fiber, textile exports of second and third level of garment exports, the export dependence 48.08%

Chemical export dependence = "chemical fiber direct export dependence + chemical fiber indirect export dependence = 48.08%

4, textile machinery

Textile machinery may be on overseas markets rely on a minimum of a profession, its external dependency only 7.12%.

Second, the European market in the textile and garment exports the proportion

Since the EU is China's textile and clothing of the Terminal market, so we mainly clothing, home textiles, industrial use of data for analysis.

According to the statistics center of China textile industry association, 2009 China on global export garment 1070 billion on European exports clothing about 284.09 billion, accounting for all clothing exports about 26.5%.

But the textile industry, exports to the EU's dependence on lighter, according to the statistics center of China textile industry association, 2009 China on EU exports home textiles 33.8 billion, accounting for textile exports all around 17.91%.

Under the warp decision-making reference published 2009 industrial textiles export data, the European Union in the technical textiles market share of approximately 14%. 2009 industrial textile exports to the EU amounts total $ 5.84 35.1% year-on-year decline.

3. euro crisis effects of China's textile industry

Taken together, the export of Chinese textile and clothing industry in dependence of 30%-40%, and China's textile and garment exports, on the European markets of various different by sector, are comparatively high for the apparel industry, the industrial sector is relatively low, essentially in 10%-30%, comprehensive look at the impact of not more than 9%, so there is no need to put the negative effects of the euro crisis look overweight.

But for some in the EU market-oriented industrial clusters and enterprise, the impact will be substantial. Enterprises have to increase the price, the European clients of passive acceptance is a problem, the euro will not be continued depreciation is also a problem. For this part of the enterprise, the local Government should be actively help they were too difficult, and guide them to walk the path of the export diversification, reduce dependency on a particular market, in particular, to guide the enterprise in based on the domestic market, based on the development and use of the overseas market, scientific, sustainable model of development.