Guard against exports "Alpine downhill"

15 October, 108, opening a period during the trade fair will be ringing the Bell, on many foreign markets in the first half of the suffering from depression distress, look at the trade fair "a thirst" of foreign trade enterprises, the macroeconomic Outlook are not optimistic. Some experts and agencies with respect to the second half of the year, China exported may constitute a "low", but "downhill". Industrial Bank senior economists, Political Commissar of even warning: Rubens in the second half of China's exports will encounter "Alpine downhill", and on the macroeconomic effects of negative overlay, which led to the economic downturn.

External pressure in squeeze

While in Europe and the market demand collective bad-mouthing of public opinion, holding more ample and European orders, but the import and export co., Ltd. Zhejiang wood toys, head of Zheng lingyun still frown. He predicted that the increase in costs in domestic and abroad, in particular the European demand fall under double pressure, after the Spring Festival next year, enterprises will face fierce downlink and may even appear a new round of foreign trade enterprises "go tide".

To this end, the Industrial Bank senior economists, Political Commissar represents a part of the Rupert. He did not explicitly mention the "collapse of tide" reproduce, but robust political Commissar also pointed out that stand in the 2009 China export "after high" before the low base, superimposed manpower, raw material cost increases, the appreciation of the Renminbi pressure increases as well as external demand weakened in the second half of the three factors determine the monthly exports in the first half will be very difficult to exceed.

Robust political Commissar, half of China's export growth, due to the crisis after the enterprise back to complement the inventory, it is expected that the export growth rate for the month of September will be reduced to 30%, to December, it will be reduced to 10% less than in the second half of the overall trend of China's exports will be rendered "Alpine downhill".

Data supporting

What is the second half of the "Alpine downhill" will be the most appropriate description of China's foreign trade, only the year of the remaining four months of data passed back to finalize. According to customs data, August Chinese exports increased 35.5%, less than 7 months 39.4% year-over-year growth rate, more than 6 month 44.7% downward trend is obvious.

Robust political Commissar in June, China's exports grew 44.7% high with respect to sing the "low", forecast July month-over-year growth rate of China's exports will fall to below 40% and thereafter July exports 39.4% decline compared to last month 5.3 percentage, falling into the prediction interval. So, September, China's export growth in August on the cardinality 35.5% decline 5.5 percentage, further fall within 30% of the predicted value is not a totally possible.

"Of course, take into account the export growth rate in the first half of this year, exports growth may reach 25%-30%. "Robust political Commissar, however foreign trade" downhill "trends of concern, especially in driving the economy of" troika ". Retail sales of consumer goods from June, started to slow down, investment in regulation policy of sustained decline, these factors and a quarter have 1.6 percentage drop in GDP negatively overlay, the resulting deterioration could be expected to further increase the economic downturn