Expert: fourth quarter of foreign trade growth rate will decline

General 13, published the first three quarters of foreign trade statistics, January-September, China's imports and exports worth $ 21486.8 billion over the same period last year (hereinafter the same) growth 37.9%, of which exports 11346.4 billion, an increase of 34%; import 10140.4 billion 42.4 percent; the trade surplus to 1206 billion, reduced 10.5%.

This reporter's interview industry experts believe that the first three quarters of the foreign trade performance is significantly higher than the expected early this year, faster than the growth of global trade as a whole, affected by exchange rate effect of multiple factors, such as superposition and is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, a significant decline in foreign trade, the annual growth rate may be maintained at 25% to 30%.

Press notes that compared with 2008, the first three quarters of this year the total value of imports and exports, exports increased 9.1% increase 5.4%, imports increased 13.5%. Of which, this year the gross imports and exports in September 2008 increased exports 12.1%, 6%, imports increased by 20%.

Department of Commerce, the Dean of the Hopi Nation-building in this interview, said that the first three quarters of the current data show that China's foreign trade in quick recovery situation, on the one hand, benefit from the economic restructuring of positive change, import growth effectively; on the other hand, the "made in China" competitiveness beyond doubt, the need to restore better than expected, the strong performance in emerging markets.

Nevertheless, Jianguo also pointed out that, since September, the appreciation of the RMB accelerated since, in the fourth quarter of foreign trade at a certain pressure. "It is expected that the fourth quarter should not appear-' diving ' decline, the annual growth in foreign trade is likely to remain at 25%-30%. "He said.

For the fourth quarter of the trend of foreign trade, business and Economics-us economic partnership research center senior fellow at the week-Shi Jian further noted that the increase in the third quarter of foreign trade has been a downward trend that is expected in the fourth quarter will be a significant downturn, "foreign demand decline, export costs rise, the appreciation of the Renminbi, resource prices, energy-saving emission reduction and other factors will drive the superposition of export growth further decline. Especially since the month of September, the Renminbi exchange rate fluctuations, will immediately be held in autumn Canton fair exhibitors enormous ' psychological shadow '. Moreover, there is no way to predict the most likely result in foreign trade enterprises can't add long single and large orders. At present, the appreciation of the RMB will continue, at the end of the middle of the dollar price may be reported to 6.6. ”