Joel's founding
September and export growth 24.7%, trade surplus narrowed
Yesterday, the General Administration of customs import and export data announced September show that September, China's export and import values 2731 billion, an increase of 24.7% to a record high, the trade surplus 168.8 billion chain reduce 15.7%.
In appreciation of the Renminbi factors high moment, and every 108 105th forthcoming, exchange rates become especially in export enterprises, the greatest challenge. Analysts believe that although the September trade surplus narrowed, but still high in absolute value does not improve the appreciation of the Renminbi pressure. Experts recommend export enterprises, respond to exchange rate fluctuations in the market is large.
Data in compliance with the regulation is expected
General Administration of customs, said yesterday that the current trend of foreign trade has been significantly better than the financial crisis levels. Department of Commerce Minister Chen Deming September has said that this year's foreign trade policy is still the stable increase of export and import.
Department of Commerce's international trade and economic cooperation Dean Hogg's founding to this interview, said that the past 9 months of data, the ideal situation development of foreign trade, price stability, despite monthly decline, but a normal phenomenon. Now foreign trade growth better than expected, external market change and slightly better than expected decline. Although developed countries demand recovery also contradiction, but developing countries and emerging markets have been relatively stable. From the internal regulation, regulation of foreign trade data is also in line with expectations. The next half year Chinese exports will enable "soft landing".
"Three quarters is a stabilised, four quarterly issues of the appreciation of the Renminbi, export growth there is also a process of continuous decline. I think that as a whole will remain at around 25% of foreign trade growth. "So the founding of the Fok.
No corrosion revalue
Although September trade surplus down to nearly 5 months low point, but analysts believe that remains relatively high, will exacerbate the pressure of the RMB exchange rate in the near future. Yesterday, the Renminbi against the US dollar exchange rate between price, foreign exchange, and then read 6.6693 has a new high.
China international economic and Exchange Center researcher Wang Jun said that 9-month surplus remains relatively large, it is very likely to exacerbate the pressure of the RMB exchange rate, China's foreign trade conditions to improve, will become public accusations against China.
However, Jianguo has told reporters that "this wave of renminbi appreciation rates have more than 3%, I think, the appreciation of the space is not thought so much. "Analysis of the founding of the Fok, although external to the exchange rate of RMB appreciation pressure is large, but the appreciation of the renminbi is still enabled. A critical appreciation of the Renminbi, exchange rate policy adjustments to take account of economic operation and carrying capacity. Currently export enterprises are facing the pressure in the further rise in the Yuan next continue rapid appreciation.
Businesses should prepare for exchange rate fluctuations
The current round of continuous appreciation of RMB in September, the analysis of the founding of the Fok, after two months of the contract will be exported. But the actual impact of the delay period be farther, because transaction orders usually in 3 months after delivery. Because, after the founding of the view that the impact of the appreciation of the renminbi in the fourth quarter will be reflected, and gradually release, but the real response should be in the next year. Despite the appreciation of the Renminbi speed for next year's judgement is slightly different, but there is no doubt that next year RMB appreciation trends are difficult to change.
Tomorrow (15 days) of the Chinese foreign trade "barometer" of 108 105th forthcoming. Joel's founding, foreign trade enterprises to better grasp the exchange rate risk. In the quotation and contract, to better control costs, to stay out of 3%-5% Exchange rate appreciation. Otherwise, once the appreciation of the Renminbi-expected, the enterprise will be a loss.
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