United States House of representatives ways and means Committee 24 voted a so-called undervalued currency countries impose special tariff Bill. Some analysts believe that this Bill will not conducive to the rational solution to the United States trade imbalance.
In May last year, the United States Democratic Party Congressman Tim · Ryan, and other members of the so-called exchange rate reforms promote fair trading act. This Bill sought to amend United States trade laws to give the United States Department of Commerce, greater rights to under certain conditions the underestimation of the so-called "currency" as export subsidies, and thus to the associated countries to the United States trade levy countervailing duties.
Recently, the United States Congressmen and business organizations to China in June this year, announced the implementation of the new round of reform since the appreciation of the Renminbi exchange rate range is too small, the collection of 133 members of Parliament, ask Congress to vote on this Bill. In this context, the House ways and means Committee hearing on the Bill to a vote. It is expected that this Bill as early as next week in the House of representatives voted for the whole Institute. According to the United States in the legislative procedure, if the House of representatives voted, the Bills will enter Senate legislative procedures. Some analysts believe that, in view of the Senate elections situation remains uncertain, the Bills in the Senate may be blocked.
Analysts believe that if the Bill is raised through force or-US trade war. United States needs to change its protectionist increasingly keen expression. United States should not forget that they are able to implement fiscal incentives Act, all depends on China's strong financial resources, such as creditors. Sanctions will only make this world into protectionism, exchange rate volatility and the vicious cycle of interest rate shock. United States should, in cooperation with Beijing, China to promote urgently needed social security reform and consumer credit. The purpose of these reforms in China and the Chinese Association for family consumption instead of savings before, whether renminbi rose to the height of China's current account surplus will not disappear.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao 22, in New York and the United States enterprises, financial and academic discussion that caused the US trade deficit is not the main cause of the RMB exchange rate, but in two countries, the structure of the investment and trade. Only be considered as a whole, taking comprehensive measures, this issue can be resolved gradually.
Expert perspectives
Us abandon ourselves to make the United States will suffer
In a number of United States Congressman trying to peddle a pretext designed to RMB exchange rate, China product implementation punitive measures in the Bill, many Chinese and foreign experts, 25, said the United States trying to force RMB dollar is the RMB exchange rate issues and impulsive move strays to solve their own problems, but may slow down the pace of economic recovery in the United States, contusion of global economic development momentum.
Division Director, international trade, CASS Songhong said that, if the United States insisted on the RMB exchange rate issues, will result in the end, the overall situation of Sino-US relations and global economic growth.
Songhong says that the RMB dollar will give China economy unbearable pressure on exports, employment, etc. pose serious damage, thereby seriously affecting the economic stability and healthy development. But as China's contribution to the global economy's rapid rise, this will disturb the including United States, the pace of global economic development.
China many export Enterprise average profit only 2% to 3%, a maximum of 5%. If the United States some appreciation of the Renminbi to achieve the 20%-30%, so don't know how many enterprises will fail, how many workers are unemployed, the number of migrant workers will be returned on a large scale.
Including representatives from the United States by Nobel Laureate Gary Becker and James · · Heckman, many senior economists, resulting in the United States trade deficit is excessive dependence on the United States economic development patterns of consumption. "Facts are proved, persecuted RMB dollar is a kind of them.He behavior. "Songhong said.
United States strategy
Hidden currency war, three plots
United States President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Geithner and the United States Congress for the Renminbi exchange rate. RMB exchange rate of war are from "wars" to "real combat" upgrade. United States Government on the back of the RMB so aggressive?
Trade balance, is again United States Government to challenge the RMB exchange rate, most frequently occurs when term. Macro-economic association, Vice President and Secretary-General Wang said that the so-called trade balance is the United States Government again through the expansion of exports, the revitalization of the United States, the United States manufacturing industries brilliant record unemployment rate, which will pull the United States economic recession a "prescription". The Renminbi exchange rate will always be treated as the "prescription" and "treatment".
Since June 19, the Renminbi exchange rate regime, the restart RMB middle price after eight consecutive trading days, or after rising is approaching 2% of the Chinese foreign trade and exports the acceptable threshold. But 20%-40% range to become United States on the appreciation of the renminbi in the next expected. "No appreciation to the United States Government expected lower limit, even if the RMB against the dollar only up to the State-owned China 6.5, will encounter enormous threat. "China's foreign exchange investment Dean Elaine Tam said. At present, China's foreign exchange reserves of about 2.4 trillion, of which 70% more than in the form of reserves in dollars. If $ end as the Renminbi against the United States would rise by 40%, China's foreign exchange reserves of about 6720 billion loss, that means that the United States national debt held by China's 80% are missing.
Trade shrink, shrink, foreign exchange reserves substantially so serious sight just United States pressured a by-product of RMB. "The United States on the RMB is only the United States on all currency long-term plan in a chapter that sound good is not good strategy, said that conspiracy. "Tan Elaine said that" the United States Government's long-term strategy is on confidence in the system and on the challenges of the US dollar into the national currency for combat. ”
By default a currency appreciation, accelerate the hot money surged into the hype this
Currency quick appreciation, later in the hot money withdrawal during the currency of extreme surplus, eventually forcing the currency devaluation, loss of reputation seriously. Tanya-summarizes this strategic roadmap.
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