The last two years, China's textile industry is very calm. First global financial shocks, the once-troubled textile enterprises. Now, a rare sight in the textile industry appear warmer but will also bear the appreciation of the renminbi in succession and cotton prices revaluation of double suppression. Many in the industry believe that textiles are running into large reduction or discontinuation of the State.
One and again the combat makes small precautions, textile enterprises in our country once again on the brink of crisis. Is it just a warming of textile enterprises and began to prepare for the winter?
Industry noted that although the textile industry is the sustainable development of the industry, but the entire industry, there are some serious problems, but also external factors of uncertainty still exists, increase industry run risks.
Appreciation of the Renminbi to exports of textiles to raise prices
September 16, RMB against the dollar in the middle price rise 69 basis points to 6.7181, this is also the price of the RMB against the dollar in the middle of the fifth trading day since 2005 after a record low of. Since September 10, the Renminbi against the US dollar has been accumulated in the middle price surge 636 basis points. While many institutions predict that the trend of the future appreciation of the renminbi is expected to continue.
Department of securities macro xiangcai is expected this year, margins in the appreciation of the Renminbi 3%-5%, this increases for most businesses is the upper limit of the tolerance range.
RMB on China's exports have made a certain negative impact, and the textile and clothing as external dependence for industry, the Renminbi exchange rate changes more sensitive, especially in a large number of small and medium-sized textile enterprises make themselves take, because of the lack of bargaining power, can tolerate appreciation to a lesser extent, the industry's exports will be affected by the adverse effects of the appreciation.
Previously, there was an authoritative estimates that the appreciation of the RMB per 1%, net profit margin in the textile industry will be reduced by 1%, and this for profit margins are already relatively low, the textile industry will be further squeezed their profit margins. The industry also generally expect that this year the four quarterly exports of textile and clothing industry will have to slow down the pace of recovery.
Reporter in the interview to understand, most export textile enterprises make themselves take all consider raising the prices of export products to offset the effects of the appreciation of the Renminbi to enterprises. Drop to the product price increases by the way, there are also business through hedging means to cope with the appreciation of the Renminbi.
Sunrisun company securities sector staff to the reporter said that since the company is mainly imported raw materials, the appreciation of the Renminbi to company losses will shrink. In addition, the company will in future take account of the receiving order to product prices. At present, the company is relying on financial products to compensate for the losses of RMB appreciation.
Lutai A securities sector staff indicated that the company this year exports have been price increases, in addition, the company also through hedging means to cope with the appreciation of the Renminbi.
At the same time, along with the price of cotton, also need to continue to increase in textile enterprises make themselves take products.
Cotton prices from supply
Relative to the appreciation of the Renminbi to textile enterprises make themselves take losses, cotton prices surge suddenly become textile enterprises make themselves take over whether to continue living in the "certificate of stone".
This year, cotton prices rising, constantly refreshed immediately following the last 10 years. 9 October, cotton prices index for 22865 Yuan/ton, compared to the first day after the national day rose by more than 300 yuan/ton. And the beginning of September the 18002 Yuan/ton, or has exceeded 20%. And a ton of standard cotton prices from last September's 8000 Yuan, soared to $ 20000, year round rose 1.5 times.
For cotton prices rise so fast, Renmin University of China School of agriculture and rural development, Vice President of hole xiangzhi, mainly due to the effects of a price between supply and demand.
Hole xiangzhi analysis: "insufficient supply or demand is rising, lead prices rising, from the point of view, this supply and demand is inevitable. Last year's production is declining, we these years each year rely on imports, this year's cotton imports reduced, like India suddenly banned the export of cotton, cotton and other countries not yet over, there is a process. Come later can alleviate this contradiction. This year's cotton can be expected to be further than last year. ”
Result in cotton prices have been rising due to the manifold. According to China cotton Association Bulletin, in addition to chemical fertilizers, pesticides, seeds and other planting cost increase factors in cotton, this year the seeding delays, weather disasters on cotton production, and also have a certain impact, cotton purchase price certainly higher than last year; on the other hand, after the financial crisis, foreign orders soar, a significant increase in demand for cotton, cotton production and demand a gap between, thus prompting the cotton price rise. 12
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