Recently released data show that Europe's economic prospects facing great downlink risk, in particular the stock back to weak supplement, which would impact has just picked up the Chinese export growth. Combined with overlay effect may export policy in the third quarter showed this year China export growth will be rendered "descending".
Overseas stock back to weak supplement
1-5 months of this year, due to overseas markets supplementary inventory needs, although the experience of the euro against the drastic devaluation, United States of Europe, China still a strong recovery. In may, China's exports to the EU, the United States respectively 258.61 billion, 241.07 billion, an increase of 49.70% respectively, 44.30%.
However, recent data show that Europe inventory growth and order growth moderation. United States Department of Commerce, last week the second amendment in the first quarter of the GDP, annualised growth 2.7% initial 3.2% 0.5 percentage points. Personal consumption down twice in a row, while Enterprise Inventory growth by initial 339 billion to 412 million. In may, United States durable goods order bid farewell to the continuous growth of 5 months, ring ratio decreased 1.1%. Combination of Philadelphia and New York in May and June PMI new orders and shipment index a March-April, sharply lower, as well as inventory expected index for two months to go down, it can be said that the current United States complement of drastic slowdown effects already in stock.
Europe, Germany June PMI index may continue falling slightly, ZEW (European Centre for economic research) the economic climate index 28.7, far below the level in the same period last year; France 5 month slower growth in the consumption chain, just 0.7%, 6 months PMI index and basic fair in may, the manufacturing sector declined slightly. The entire euro zone PMI 55.6 in June, slightly lower than 5 months.
Jianghai securities analysts as a leading indicator of lihuan believes that to a certain extent reflects the debt problems of the real economy, the second half of Europe's endogenous growth weakened for export is the main concern for indexes.
National Securities analyst Chen pointed out that, in the second half of the growth in the global economy will be significant slowdown, China's export growth will face greater challenges, particularly on the EU's exports will be a more substantial decline, but considering that the EU economic downturn is a gradual process that exports do not encounter the 2008 Avalanche drop.
Chinese exports will "descending"
In May this year, our foreign trade growth is the result of an increase of nearly 40 48.5 per month to the highest level, but many analysts believe China's foreign trade growth has peaked. The Secretary-General of the China international economic and Exchange Centre, Wei Jianguo major trading partner the EU debt crisis still in fermentation, coupled with the exchange rate, export tax rebate policy adjustments, etc will be superimposed effects appeared, the first three quarters of this year China foreign trade situation is not optimistic about this year's trade surplus will dip to $ 1000 or less.
From the Office of the reporter on the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and other export enterprises to understand the situation, many electronics, clothing enterprise in labor and raw material prices, profits have been greatly compressed to 3%.
Wei Jianguo, cancel the export tax rebate to inhibit both gaoyizi exports, but in the long run, should establish a long-term stable export refund mechanism, to the enterprise to clear expectations.
For expansion of cross-border trade RMB clearing pilot, Department of Commerce Institute researcher Mei Xinyu pointed out that the capital-intensive export enterprises, this is a positive. Export of complete sets of "do, a project often take several years, if the exchange rate, exchange rate risk even existed. If you use RMB clearing, the exchange rate risk does not exist. "He said.
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