Although the Group of twenty (G20) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors on Saturday at the closing of the Conference promises to avoid competitive devaluations, but it is worth noting that played the "rate card" of the United States began repeatedly rebuffed up "trade surplus with the card"-proposal States will often account for the difference in GDP at 4%, thereby putting pressure on the Renminbi exchange rate in disguise.
This proposal because of the major exporting countries of the G20 generally opposed but have not been adopted. Analysts believe that the United States in the context of a current account surpluses to judge whether the undervalued exchange rate still disagreements, and appreciation for the surplus of no conclusion.
While trade surplus for "GDP" may write to China's "twelve five" planning, digital close planning are on the "business news" gives a negative answer.
United States proposal 4% of the current account balance target
The proposal comes from the United States Treasury Secretary Geithner, 20 October-G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors letter of recommendations, contained in the letter promises G20 countries should "in the next few years will reduce external imbalances to a specific proportion of GDP, Geithner under", in particular that: "those who have significantly undervalued currency and significant preventive reserves of G20 emerging market countries should allow their exchange rate in the coming period fully fit to face the economic base and consistent with the level. ”
Although the recommendation is not at Geithner's letter stated that the "specific ratio", but the IMF Chief Kahn in last Saturday's News Conference, "digital 4% is made by Geithner." He noted that when Geithner expressed this idea, the main discussion will focus on finding a more appropriate and more complex objectives.
Kaan believe: "such a specific target level has both advantages and disadvantages. The benefit is simple, easy to assess whether a State has achieved. But the problem is that 4% of the significance of different countries vary, such as the oil-exporting countries. ”
The proposal will be presented including Germany, Japan and other export-oriented economies against the support party is domestic demand-oriented economies, including Canada, Korea and France.
Joint communiqué of the meeting, Mr Geithner's proposals have not been adopted. But for the future is likely to take similar targets, Kahn said current States are "efforts to seek the possibility to define an account different national circumstances of specific objectives."
Put pressure on China in disguise
Although not directly refer to China, but participating in Korea officials said that this "current account" idea is hoping to bridge the current Sino-US exchange rate differences on the issue.
Current account surplus is the exchange rate is an important basis of assessment methods, but the IMF and the Chinese Government in order to determine the exchange rate is underestimated disagreements. According to the IMF data, China's current account surpluses GDP 4.7%, but the IMF projected China's current account surplus by 2012 to 6%, 2014 will reach 8% up or down. This is the United States believes that the renminbi and comply with the medium-term equilibrium level fundamentals are significantly undervalued compared to the "main".
Nevertheless, according to IMF staff report, the Chinese Government is expected, with the structural reforms, wage inflation, exchange rate movements, of continuing the process of urbanization and demographic changes, China's trade surplus will essentially stable in 4% of a reasonable level, will not continue to go high. Vice Governor of the prise previously also said that China is planning to current account surpluses of GDP over the next 3 to 5 years by 2009 5.8% to 4%.
People's Bank of China financial Institute a reluctance to disclose the name of the researcher to the reporter said: "the United States ' policy never out with a specific country, such a criterion is no exception. But the United States will exchange rate issues to trade surplus, and in fact did not change the nature, which sent the FDI (foreign direct investment). ”
Appreciation on the impact of trade surplus and unclear. The researchers pointed out that research has shown that appreciation does not necessarily lead to imagine reverse the "hook" that is, appreciation will first result in export volume increased subsequent slide of the phenomenon. "We conclude that, as long as the enterprise full adjustment of the time, our exports would not be a big problem. If the RMB maintaining the current uptrend, not too quickly, our economy should be able to bear. "The source said.
IMF says China can achieve goals
Although China for 4% of the target not directly, but Kahn said: "If you look at the ' mutual evaluation procedures ' will find China can achieve this goal. ”
The so-called "mutual evaluation procedures" (referred to as MutualAssessmentProcess, MAP), the IMF will provide a framework for the collection and assessment of national policy information to clear coordination than domestic solutions to how to achieve better results, avoid domestic solutions to neighbouring countries interest the possible damage.
Kahn says that in China, Europe, Japan and the United States and other leaders of the discussions, these countries will want to make every effort to maintain the global recovery: "they understand that currently the biggest threat is in the current account or the exchange rate on the endless conflict. ”
In the letter, Geithner has also called for if the setting of these objectives, the IMF should monitor the progress of national commitment to play a "special responsibility" on the progress of the G20 countries publish half annual report, including the agreed target of "external sustainability, national consistency of exchange rates, capital account, institutional and fiscal policy."
After the show, countries agree to joint communiqué of the IMF should be in the global balance issues are given a closer supervision duties authorized IMF Survey "persistent excessive imbalance", and "spillover effects report" to oversee systemic large economies of the economic policies of the global impact.
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