By next Tuesday by the main customs administration announced July import and export data, since the previous General estimated annual trade "descending" trend and concern.
If the data show July imports and exports both sharply in June, that is really the turning point for export blowout.
Press spokesman for the Department of Commerce had Yao kin during routine Conference, foreign demand market next uncertainties in particular, this is the external environment, the biggest problem. In the second half of the year, due to a higher base, export growth rate of decline will occur.
This reporter's interview of institutions generally predicted that China's export growth in July decreased significantly, the impact of the weak foreign demand has begun to emerge. While domestic suppression credit and real estate hot policy become more effective, but also makes institutions generally determine the import will further decline.
Comprehensive in the industry, as imports fell back may be faster than exports, therefore, the surplus will remain high.
PMI leading indicators that signal
The international financial crisis, China's foreign trade and exports continued to decline, in November of last year, December resumption, positive growth. Which began in the second half of last year, especially to four quarter of foreign trade recovery, pull up year-over-year basis in the second half of this year. Based on this background, the effect of base Yao Jian last month told reporters that judging this year's foreign trade, Ministry of Commerce, will appear the "descending".
In Guo Chief macroeconomic analyst Li Hui Yong, it appears that exports might drop because, on the one hand because of the export refund cancelled, blitz export factors to disappear. June 22, the National Directorate of the Ministry of finance and tax on jointly issued a cancel some of the goods for export tax rebates "circular, from July 15th to start, cancel 406 items for export tax rebates.
On the other hand, as the external market demand weakening. China Manufacturing PMI in export orders index has declined for two consecutive months. He predicted that the July export growth 29.1% decline, growth than 14.8 percentage points last month. Generally speaking, new export orders index of leading export 3 months or so.
From China export container transport market data, although Eastern Mediterranean route due in June, early access to shipping season, July volume but relatively weak; but in hot market in June, July, volume growth in the middle of North America still more obvious, European stable increase in the volume. But in late July container freight rates have been loosened, this area may be affected by adjustments to the export tax rebate policy; on the one hand, and the price is already high "rise up".
Accordingly, the Industrial Bank Chief Economist forecasts, Political Commissar of robust exports growth will fall into the 34.2% ~ 38.2% range, median 36.2%, representing a 6-month fall 7.7 percentage points.
This also and huatai joint securities analyst Steven, zhangjing judgment unanimously: because as the synchronization parameters of China export container freight index is still high, it is expected that the export link will be stable increase in year-over-year growth rate, by analysing the factors will drop.
European tightening pressure increasing exports
The complexity of the international economic environment, is considered the economic growth in the second half of the main risks facing. On the European debt crisis uncertainty of expected, and the United States economy continuing weak data, have seriously affected the growth of China's exports.
Bank Financial Research Center's new report shows that in the second half of 2010, although facing European debt crisis and the impact of the appreciation of the Renminbi, it is expected that continues to maintain the momentum of restorative rise. However, after the debt crisis in Europe, countries all over the world, especially Europe, began to tighten financial, this will make future unlikely to rely on fiscal stimulus to support global economic recovery. In developed countries to complement the inventory cycle is finished, the pace of recovery in the global economy will once again slowed down, do not rule out there again to the pressure of the inventory, which will export growth to China, the formation pressure rapid growth of China exports to continue.
Because institutions generally expect that imports fell faster than exports, therefore, is expected to maintain this balance.
China International Capital Corporation Chief Economist jiming HA forecast, foreign trade, the progressive weakening export orders made July exports grew at a slower rate of 38% year-over-year growth rate; whereas imports dropped to 30%; together, the trade surplus will rise to $ 223.
For the whole year the trade surplus, UBS Securities Chief Economist Wangtao projections, from the third quarter due to the United States and Europe's economic growth slowed, export growth will decline, but the remainder of the year actually export volume growth will continue to be faster than imports. Slight appreciation of RMB, the weak euro, and European countries more fiscal austerity measures will have on China's export situation produces a certain negative impact. The year 2010 and is expected to export press dollars will achieve growth of 24%. As a result of faster growth of import prices, dollars of imports growth is expected to exceed exports, therefore 2010 trade surplus narrows, but size still considerable.
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