Monday, December 20, 2010

Expanding imports of real experts should be to adjust the import structure

On 6 September, the Commerce Department-sponsored "2010 China Forum", the experts talk about the expansion of import, balance the urgency and importance of trade. They are expressed, either from the balance of trade, reducing the risk of foreign exchange reserves, or from the adjustment of economic structures, achieve energy-saving emission reduction objective point of view, to import are undoubtedly is an important strategy in the area of foreign trade.

The past decade, China's imported speeds have been accelerated. From imports, China has already for many years as the world's second largest importer. According to the Ministry of commerce statistics, China's imports of goods from 1978 to 109 billion, rising to $ 1 trillion in 2009, an increase of 92 times. Since its accession to WTO, Chinese new year are imported scale approaches or exceeds $ 100 billion, so importing incremental is making it a rare.

From openness, 2010 China import tariffs overall level 9.8%, far below the average for developing countries 46.6% tariff levels. This year, China has also further reduce part of raw materials and final consumer goods import duties, from 1 July onwards, step-by-step on LDCs zero tariff treatment. In non-tariff measures, China now has all cancelled the import quota management.

Potential from consumption, 2009 China's retail sales of consumer goods to 12.53 trillion yuan, the next 10 years with an average annual growth of 10%, 10 years will reach 32.5 trillion yuan, will have 20 billion spending increase in space.

In fact, the problems faced by Chinese imports, not the "quantity" and "openness", nor "insufficiency", but "quality" and "structural" problems.

Take a look at China's import of principal of the year. First, resources, energy and agricultural products. Although China has been the iron ore, petroleum, copper, grain and other resources of world imports of powers, but faced "China what to buy, what international markets rose" embarrassing situation, it is the Chinese imports behind great powers international pricing power "aphasia."

Secondly, spare parts and semi-finished products, this reflects the fact — China import demand in large part by the export-led. Years, China's foreign trade in "two out" of the processing trade, relying on the import of parts in China, in the Assembly after export of the "low-value" mode, in a global industry value chain of low-end, unable to share in global technology innovation and industrial upgrading. In this sense, Chinese workers long-term at low labour price subsidies in developed countries, consumers, and let them enjoy the tasty "made in China".

Import of embarrassment or direct transmission to the export link. As China's economy on the import of energy resources and components rely on higher levels, common stimulating, external demand, China imported commodities price index continued increases in the first half, while export commodity prices are highly competitive constraints in export earnings is greatly compressed.

Expansion of imports and not simply increase imports so simple, just shout shouting slogans, table table attitude. China's need to import? important resource and commodity import market risks can be dispersed and hedge? domestic enterprises can digest the imported technology and innovation can export trade partners? lets loose on the control of exports of certain products? these are necessary to answer the question.

In my view, the essence of imports should be adjusted on China's current import structure, able to meet China's current economic restructuring needs resources come in, so that truly meet the characteristics of China's current development stage, so that the technology in China's consumer market really need and carrying goods come in. This time of global financial crisis could be the turning point for the world market situation changes, and also the States on globalization issues arising in the process of reflection. After the financial crisis, China's foreign trade should be how to restructuring, China should do what adjustment, is very worthwhile.

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