China's trade surplus strong rebound

Import and export value before October of last year, the Ministry of Commerce-official says us put pressure on the appreciation of the Renminbi miscalculated

Despite the appreciation of the renminbi in October, the month accelerated trade surplus has not come down, but more September expanded more than 100 billion dollars. Customs-every 10 days per month on published data show, top 10, China's imports and exports worth $ 2.39 trillion, an increase of (the same below) 36.3 percent, and export size exceeded last year's level. Import and export of single, slightly down from the expected growth rate, which imports and exports value $ 2448.1 billion, up 24%; the export growth 22.9%; import growth 25.3%.

Balance of trade with twice the rate of Exchange

Customs statistics show that the first 10 months of this year, China's general trade import and export 11918.2 billion, an increase of 40%. General trade under trade deficit 336 billion, compared to the 2009 12.9 times.

As a result of imports of ring than drop larger, October month implementation trade surplus 271 billion, up 9 month increase 102.2 billion, extended to three months to the highest level. Some analysts believe that October ultra expected trade surplus may result in the forthcoming G20 Summit requirements increase of RMB sound.

On these data, the Department of Commerce's Institute of international trade and economic cooperation, this reporter's interview of Bai, clearly stated that from October's trade surplus with the United States can be seen, miscalculated, the United States due to the expansion of China's trade surplus and to put pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi is unwarranted.

The trend for this year's trade balance of twists and turns, is the "W-shape". The first three months, the trade surplus shrinking, today March also has a trade deficit, after expanding to 287 million in July, September, once again received nearly 5 months low point in October, the trade surplus expanded again.

"October is the most violent of RMB a month, less than derogatory, but in this case, the trade deficit has expanded the description of RMB on Sino-US trade imbalance between does not have any effect. "Bai said, now the Chinese exports to the United States has been basically passivation, i.e. in the existing export conditions, to take the exchange rate, and other policy measures, although you can have a positive effect, but the effect is only half done. Therefore the appreciation of the Renminbi or devaluation effects of exports are not too big.

After two months of negative growth in export or are

After the city trends in foreign trade? analysts believe that last year base, November, December, China's imports or negative growth; for Europe and the United States and other traditional consumption season approaches, export the environment has improved. Thus the trade surplus will continue to come out this year's "W-" last up, but margins are limited.

Research fellow, Institute of State policy consulting, Wang Guang compared with the last two months of imports is quite fierce, November, December, import growth 26.7% respectively and 55.9% is expected this year after two months of imports growth may be negative.

Bai said that domestic imports to resource products, affected by macroeconomic impact is large, the current economic regulation relative constraints, such as the iron ore import a certain pressure. However, resource commodities price is more important than quantity, prices, oil prices have continued to rise in the trend, non-ferrous metals fluctuations are large. In addition, for the regulation of domestic agricultural products [23.901.57%] market prices, countries are also likely to increase in imports.

At the same time, the next two months there is favourable for export. Bai believed that the appreciation of the RMB is not always possible, there may be two steps of the "l" trend in no time, after two months may be slowed down. External demand, European debt crisis is over, the United States in implementing quantitative easing, not only to bring jobs and will provide an impetus to consumption. At the same time, next month, Christmas season, is the traditional peak season of consumption.

"The trade surplus in is in ' W-shaped ' last turned on, I think in the direction of the next few months, the trade balance remains smooth and slightly increased. "Bai said, if long time remain in this State, is more ideal.

Top 10 month major foreign trade data

Project

Data

Year-over-year increase or decrease

The total value of imports and exports

23934.1 billion

36.3%

Export

12705.9 billion

32.7%

Import

11228.2 billion

40.5%

Trade surplus

1477.7 billion

-6.7%

The main foreign trade data in October

Project

Data

Year-over-year increase or decrease

The total value of imports and exports

2448.1 billion

24%

Export

= Center > 1359.8 billion

22.9%

Import

1088.3 billion

25.3%

Trade surplus

271 billion