China's trade surplus may greatly increase of RMB "calm"

June 10, China announced $ 195 billion trade surplus in may, does not seem to reflect immediately in the market for appreciation of the Renminbi pressure. The Renminbi against the US dollar trading system at the oilfree eventually sink 6.8308 yesterday, only 1 6.8281 earlier fell 27 basis points.

Experts in this view, from the Chinese export enterprises and employment, is also no reason to make a trade surplus of RMB; while expanding the monetary base increased inputs, will to some extent, increase the Bank's liquidity regulation more difficult, but the effect is not very big.

Guojiawaiguanju yesterday published annual report on Foreign Exchange Management, 2009, 2010 the international balance of payments surplus will remain on a larger scale, but the balance of payments situation is expected to improve further.

RMB appreciation criteria do not have the

For the trade surplus of sudden, Shanghai University of finance and MBA Dean Daiguoqiang that may bring appreciation pressure again.

China's trade surplus has long been a United States and other countries to put pressure on the importance of the appreciation of the Renminbi. In March this year the deficit appears slightly eased the Renminbi appreciation pressure, but may also appear larger surplus growth.

But at the same time that daiguoqiang cannot use short months of data. For example, recently, China's manufacturing industry labor costs increase momentum for China's export of impact in 3-4 months to appear.

Standard Chartered Bank (China) co., Ltd. economic analysis shili-Wai also believes that the short month of surplus on the appreciation of the Renminbi pressure not only large, the appreciation of the renminbi in China's top economic recovery in Europe and the confirmation can occur. Moreover, the current slowdown in China already fixed investment, in this case probably won't make the appreciation of the RMB rashly.

The appreciation of the renminbi and surplus, and agricultural Bank of China Deputy General Manager, financial markets Department of the East Pang does not consider it necessary relation. "The United States with surpluses that things are their excuse. There is also no reason to make the appreciation of the Renminbi, from exporting enterprises and employment situation. ”

Peng, and this year is expected to Dong Yuan for the dollar exchange rate will remain stable. "At present and the beginning of the judge and nothing changes. From a macroeconomic perspective, there is no possibility of appreciation. Current soft stare at US dollar or the relative fit. ”

On a limited impact on liquidity regulation

As for the fear that the trade surplus expanded, will form a more foreign exchange accounts, thereby resulting in base currency increased inputs, and increase the Bank's liquidity control difficulty, daiguoqiang said trade surplus amount does not necessarily correspond to the Exchange account section data. He pointed out that, if the Exchange Enterprise will remain in the hands, not foreign, will not cause the Exchange account, it will not form the basis of currency into RMB. Enterprises will exchange direct expenditure for the purchase, nor does it form the Exchange account.

However, the data shows that this year's Exchange account section is relatively high, as at the end of April, my Exchange account balance reaches 203453.7 billion, 3 month count 2863.1 billion incremental invasive for a period of time.

On the regulation of market liquidity, daiguoqiang believes that the next Bank level market relative also easy, but the difficulty of the secondary market will increase. "Central banks recently although repeatedly raise deposit reserve ratio, but still not enough to affect bank liquidity. ”