In the exchange rate regime, the export tax rebate policy and pressure, will be published on 10 June, the foreign trade data raises concerns about the market.
6 month export was continued during the month, exceeding expected growth or policy under the pressure of the market in significant setback? data differences never marked as General this month. For this month, the expected growth rate of exports, brokerage reports high see to 53%, is low at 30%, floating over 20%.
June's bad pledge.
19 June, the Bank decided to further advance the reform of the Renminbi exchange rate regime and subsequently RMB/USD mid-price, market innovation.
After three days, the Ministry of finance, announced that, since the beginning of July 15, cancel part of the building materials such as steel, nonferrous metals, 406 a tax number products export tax rebates.
These policies on the export enterprise of self-evident, but in June, the policy effects seem to be not significant. A steel trade enterprise sources, to cancel the export tax rebate policy for enterprises to remain a certain preparation time, this will allow enterprises to speed up the recent completion of the order, shipment and short term but will stimulate export complete.
From existing indicators, PMI has generally 2 months or so lag phase, June exports depend heavily on April 3, PMI new export orders index at a time when digital remains high growth. In April, new export orders index PMI continue picking up momentum, index 57.9%.
In addition, from Chinese export container transport market data, in mid-June, North America, Europe, the Eastern Mediterranean route advance access to shipping season, transport demand more may have greater growth and remains at a high level.
Analysts generally agreed that, since June, the export will begin to truly enter the "descending" track. First, policy, labor costs increase, trade friction, Europe loan crisis and other factors affecting gradually appearing superimposed.
5 month of PMI's export orders index have moderation, and 6-month index continued slowdown. Accordingly, the China Federation of logistics and purchasing Vice Chairman Tsai Chin forecast, from 6 July, the export growth rate may be lower.
Ministry of Commerce who believes that the next few months, the European debt crisis for China's export of negative effects may gradually revealed.
Dean of the Department of Commerce, also known as the founding of the Fok, exports fell, will appear in the second half of the fourth quarter drop in speed even more evident.
Impact of foreign trade in the second half of the other factor is that the Government will accelerate the restructuring and development of foreign trade patterns.
Recently, the Department of Commerce has intensified, particularly around the province's foreign trade. And, with regard to speeding up the service outsourcing, support for modern service policy was also introduced frequently.
It is reported that, to accelerate change in the mode of foreign trade, Ministry of Commerce will be introduced within this month on how to speed up the change of foreign trade and development, and guidance to the Office of the State Council issued in the form of a file.
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