The next five years, Western economic growth inhibits the expansion of global trade, the United States over the next five years will be the overall economic growth of 2% of the time entry "," its growth weaker than 1983-1989, economic liberalism of the trial period, 1992-2000 a new economic era and 2003-2007 consumer age of liabilities. Forecast for five-year average annual growth of the global economy, which will 3.5% inhibition of the expansion of global trade.
Inhibition of China's exports in addition to global economic growth, the impact on exports of factors also include countries political situation, policy, finance, environment, trade patterns, etc. In the five major striking contrast, China has become the focus of global rebalancing, which will further lower export growth in China. "Twelve five" first four years, China's trade surplus still exist, but surplus than the "eleventh five-year plan" period significantly reduce, 2014 surplus to 904 million conservative forecast 2015 appear approximately 347 billion trade deficit.
RMB appreciation trends hard to change over the next five years the RMB exchange rate is expected to achieve the 1: 5. China's exports are essentially by resource endowment and international division of labour status and foreign demand may determine that the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the import and export.
Livelihood security project group 5 of the "12"
The next five years the world economic growth
Inhibition of global trade expansion
The next five-year economic growth in the United States entered the era of "2%", global economic growth will be inhibited with low global trade expansion. To external demand and exports method, optimistic projected 2015, China's export 23322 billion; however, taking into account national political situation, policy, finance, environment, trade patterns, China will be the global economy and the balance of the focus, the actual export growth rate will decline further. Appreciation of the renminbi is a long-term trend, but China's exports are essentially by resource endowment and international division of labour status and foreign demand, the appreciation of the renminbi is not necessarily cause the export decline. Comprehensive consideration of the factors affecting the import and export, 2015 will from the trade surplus to a deficit.
The next five years, Western economic growth, the United States economy into "2% age." Over the past 30 years United States economic growth is "5%-3%" ladder. Beginning in the United States economic and financial crisis is a global financial system is the result of malignant expansion is also the Western developed countries over the past 25 years, growth failure response. From the long-term trend, United States system and technological innovation of gradually failure, the potential for economic growth in the current economic downturn, the kinetic energy of the financial crisis before continuing, high economic growth rates are difficult to maintain.
1980s, the United States the Reagan Administration receives new liberal economic philosophy, rely on tax cuts, privatization and break the monopoly of the labour market, institutional innovation, 1983-1989 annual average economic growth rate was slightly higher than 5%.
1990s United States Clinton Administration created a "new economy" era, rely on Internet technology breakthroughs and conversion of military technology, technological innovation, 1992-2000 average annual economic growth rate close to 4%.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, after the Internet bubble burst, the United States has neither a significant technological innovation, nor large institutional innovation, but there are real estate, financial innovation, subprime mortgage financial lever pull out of the expansion of the real economy's strong growth, 2003-2007 average economic growth rate was slightly lower than 3%.
2011 United States economic rebound short stabilises. In affected economic running four cycle inventory cycle, financial cycle and needs period decided in the short run the economy, supply cycle affect the economy of long-running trend. From the current situation, the United States economy rebound short renders stabilises. Expected 2011 annual United States unemployment rate fell to 7%, economic growth 3.5%.
According to the inventory cycle variation, the United States will rise next year customer inventory, orders, inventory will come down, the total inventory will uplink; financial deleveraging has ended, the real estate market bottom, while the real economy credit remains relatively low, but the real estate market will rebound, Sinopec is expected to exceed 've, financial markets will not be at the end of the second exploration; from requirements in the cycle, the United States employment income will eventually support increased consumption growth and employment, the unemployment rate will slow next year will fall to 7%, consumption will be better.
Stimulating effects of policies, economic long power is hard to find. Since the 1980s, changes in the economic development in Western countries, the implementation of the policies advocated school supplies, such as the United States United Kingdom Thatcher and Reagan Administration take tax cuts, privatization, reduce economic intervention, reduce social welfare spending, increased labour market flexibility and other policy measures are "typical" Schumpeter's growth. To 2005, British and American classrooms to supply cycle of uplink stage, technology and system and no big innovation, supply cycle of downlink stage.
Post-crisis United States technological innovation and system innovation power shortage, the Obama administration launched a series of policy and stimulate the economy and increasing employment is one of the economic impact of long-term growth is still uncertain. Specific export structure has limited the "United States manufacturing" package effect, economic restructuring will not be accomplished; reversal of political situation impedes "new health reform" policy on the smooth implementation of the lower savings, boost consumption is needed in the course of time; strict financial supervision has weakened financial institutions ' lending will, the real economy of reconstruction "to go" blood transfusion; heavy budgetary pressure limits on emerging technology industry investment, science and technology-driven growth of new high-growth of a dial.
The next five years in the United States economic growth will be 2% of the overall entry "era", its growth is lower than the 1983-1989, economic liberalism of the trial period, 1992-2000 a new economic era and 2003-2007 consumer age of liabilities. It is expected that the next five years the average economic growth rate in the United States will be lower than the 2003-2007 average 2.8% growth rate is maintained at the level of around 2.6%.
Western
Other national economic growth is greatly influenced by United States, 1960-2009 OECD GDP is about United States GDP 1.1189 times, it is expected that Western countries 2011-2015 average annual growth of 2.9%.Global growth remains low. United States, Japan and the three major economies in the euro area GDP accounted for world economic output of 60%, Western countries over the next five-year economic low growth will lower the global economic growth. 1999-2008 world economic growth in the United States economic growth, namely an elastic 1.296 United States economic growth of 1% each, world economic growth 1.296%. If the next five years, the United States economy is growing at an annual rate of 2.6% average annual growth of the world economy 3.5%.
Global economic growth will be inhibited with low global trade expansion. 2000-2008, global export growth 1.822 times the average annual growth in world GDP 13.8% (current prices) growth 0.949 times the average annual rate of export growth 8.7%, much higher than GDP; in 2009, the impact of the financial crisis, the world's economic crisis, the decline in global GDP, export 2.5% decline 12.0% export fluctuations than GDP. The next five years, subject to the West in national economic impact of low growth, increase of export growth to drop will be larger than the decline rate of economic growth.
Global economic growth and trade patterns is the core of our export size argument. According to China's export and global economic and trade relationship forecast that China's exports by 2015 around 23322 billion. 1234
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