Experts said that the United States in the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy would exacerbate our foreign trade enterprises, the deterioration of the living environment. The dollar further increase the appreciation of the Renminbi pressure, China's export competitiveness decline significantly. At the same time, the United States excessively loose monetary policy makes market flood, international commodities continued to rise, to China "imported inflation," Enterprise imports cost pressure.
United States implementing quantitative easing monetary policy will lead to many countries, China is no exception. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cuitiankai 5, said that the US should make appropriate interpretation, so as not to affect the international community on the confidence of world economic recovery. China foreign trade expert is "China's foreign trade enterprise environment will deteriorate," warning.
"The United States for the second round of the quantitative easing policy on China's foreign trade industry will gradually appear, the impact will gradually intensifying, and will continue for some time. Our foreign trade enterprises might be subjected to import and export two links in the ' double blow '. "The State research and development center of foreign economic research department Deputy Minister Zhao Jin Ping this reporter's interview on my trade issues a warning.
China foreign trade pressure
Zhao Jin Ping on press analysis pointed out that from the exit link, since the start of the RMB exchange rate mechanism in China since the reform of the Renminbi has remained on an upward trend, it has become China's foreign trade enterprises in the further development of constraints. While the United States for the second round of the "quantitative easing" dollar long-term depreciation is expected to further increase the appreciation of the Renminbi pressure, China's exports are compounded by the difficulties facing enterprises, enterprises export costs will increase significantly, while the export competitiveness will be "marked decline."
From the import link, although the dollar seems to me to expand the import, but the present case, since the international commodity and resource prices surge, which also covers my imported commodities in large proportions, will strengthen my import enterprise cost pressures, and transmission to the domestic commodity prices, further boosting domestic inflation.
He is not worried about that, relative to the effective exchange rate of RMB rise far greater than the nominal exchange rate increase, our country's foreign trade industry combat it "deep bone marrow". Because the actual exchange rate of RMB to domestic inflation indicator factors taken into consideration, but China's major export markets, such as the US, the object is at a stage of deflation.
The Ministry of Commerce Institute Zm compass, Deputy Director, pine says United States "quantitative easing" to seek, on stimulating the development of their domestic economy play a role of "positive", it will cause to others. United States stock market in one fell swoop to revert to the level before the financial crisis, the United States population growth in large amounts of wealth, but other countries significantly shrunk in size of assets, because the dollar is the currency reserves of the majority and the pricing of the global primary commodity currencies. China to expand exports harvest is a "bubble" that earned us assets in proportion to a large number of evaporation, substantial foreign exchange reserves shrinking.
"Comparing" China's foreign trade is the best global
And the experts "pessimistic" views, the Department of Commerce Institute researchers with different Mei Xinyu, "unfounded" and not, the comparative advantage of China's industry is still in the future remains bright.
Mei Xinyu, should actively from multiple angles, should not only look at the issue of longitudinal and more than that should stand in a global perspective and major trading competitor landscape ratio. He said: "the impact of the global $ floods, China could not influence by one point. But the ' grave ' is not a Chinese company, which is in addition to the United States, almost the entire world. "We look at the object should not be limited to China, a country's exchange rate indicators of this one-way, but should look at China and its trading partners as well as my main competitor in the exchange rate and inflation levels, expand the scope to horizontal comparison.
He said that, as a trade surplus with the big country, China's monetary policy variations and their vertical ratio is very large, but with our major trading competitor countries landscape than the smaller, local currency and the dollar rate at 5% ~ 10%, the cost of their export industry affected even more. "From this perspective, they are unable to completely replace the advantages of China, China is still on. ”
Secondly, from the perspective of inflation, China's inflation rate compared to other emerging economies are still at the lower level, more than offset the cost of China's enterprises to export growth.
In addition, the overall economy of scale, because China has a great strength, won the "extra advantages", that is, to a certain extent can curb, elimination of external economic impact of the I and influence, thereby ensuring that the RMB exchange rate and the level of domestic inflation is relatively stable.
No comments:
Post a Comment