Trade friction "downsizing" of the foreign trade surplus with the appreciation of the Renminbi has no effect on the import and export

National development and foreign economic Institute Zhangyansheng 4 December attended the fourth jiangxin International Forum Guosheng securities 2011 large investment strategy report time analysis pointed out that China's economic growth next year, the situation is more difficult than this year, will face many challenges, at the same time, next year's foreign trade situation more than this year.

Although China's economic fundamentals are very good, but zhangyansheng view, 2008 financial crisis significantly extrusion of China's economic structural adjustment in time and space, if you respond incorrectly, has the potential to become the biggest victims. Therefore, in foreign demand reduction, friction, hot money surged into the main currency instability wave, the unpredictability of external factors on the threat of China.

He pointed out that, according to the Institute's prediction, this year's trade surplus is likely to remain in 1800 billion next year and export growth rate is estimated to be 15%, of which the export growth rate is likely to remain at 13%, import growth is likely in the next year, 18% of trade surplus in 1260, the grim situation than this year, on the one hand because of the global economy may be slowing down, on the other hand, are some of the major quantitative easing, possible to emerging economies and manufacturing a new round of foam. He believed that Chinese enterprises, last year was to survive, to live the most important; this year is the opportunity; the next year is to self-strengthening. However, there are likely to occur next year trade wars and monetary warfare will exacerbate China's external environment.

He believes that China's next step will face many challenges. First of all, low-cost competitive advantages are changing. Significant investment in China is facing "is transferred to the Central and Western regions or to the surrounding areas of shifted in China". According to World Bank statistics, in the 15 to 34-year-old population group, China's total population; and India 29.07% of the total population of 34.99%. India labor resources younger, lower per capita income, making challenges.

Second, China and the national trade frictions, basic balance of payments difficulties of implementation, the appreciation of the Renminbi pressure and so are the challenges to be faced. Data show that in January-August, a total of 17 countries (regions) has initiated the China trade remedy investigations 79, involving a total amount of about 100.35 billion, an increase of 16.2% respectively and 121.2%.

From the perspective of the RMB exchange rate, zhangyansheng believes that although we thought the Renminbi exchange rate raises overall trade war is unlikely, but there is a negative role.

Zhangyansheng revealed that we had some exports up to 2 billion multinational corporation conducted a survey, when asked whether renminbi dollar on its export and surplus in terms of impact, their answer is "no effect", because there is no need to use RMB payment.