General Administration of customs import and export of 10 published data show that in August this year-over-year increase in China's exports 34.3% lower than last month growth rate, which was already 3.7% are for export growth rate for the third consecutive month. Industry analysis, export growth rate of decline should be structured and seasonal fluctuations, due to the long term foreign trade situation, expected Q4 will return to the stable growth track.
Date of publication of customs statistics, August Chinese import and export value 2585.7 billion, an increase of 34.7%. Exports growth 34.4% slower than the previous month 3.7 percentage, import growth 35.2%, compared to last month upgrade 12.5 percentage points.
From the month of may, June, 48.5 43.9% July 38.1% to 8% of the month, the Chinese handset 34.4 export growth rate has declined for three consecutive months. Data export growth to drop is not accidental, prior to this, including Goldman Sachs, CICC, Hong Yuan securities and many other research institutions have expected, the export growth rate in August will further decline occurred.
Related research who believes that currently foreign trade situation complex, mainly from international seasonal fluctuations in demand. These factors, the United States should not be overlooked. CICC latest research report noted that the United States economic slowdown in the second half or will continue momentum, fourth quarter could be worse than in the third quarter. CICC and prediction, United States economy growth ring than the third quarter to 1% in the fourth quarter will fall to 0.8%. Expected economic slowdown in the United States will be on China's export growth formation pressure. Learn economics Professor Wong Kin-chung, Vice President, believes that the year 5 to 8-month increase in decline, and the second quarter of foreign buyers margin cycle. Because of the uncertain market consumption expected to buyers of stock depletion until early in the second quarter was initiated to add. And the 5, 6 month, margin effect disappears, export growth ring than the probability of a decline. It is expected that this year, 9, 10 month "Christmas orders" set, will promote the margin effect appeared again.
Pei grams that corporate confidence is easy to understand, as the world's factory, although there is no longer regarded as the world's most expensive production base, but comprehensive account of production, logistics, and many other factors, China remained the most competitive production base.
The industry further stated that the four quarterly orders strong conditions will continue into next year, next year, the export will return to pre-crisis normality, there will be no dramatic swings since 2009, the annual growth is expected in 2010 is about 20%.
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