Customs: the total value of imports and exports in July to a record high again

Yesterday the General Customs Administration published data show that China's export and import values in July 2623.1 million, an increase of 30.8%, of which exports 1455.2 billion, an increase of 38.1%; import 1167.9 billion, an increase of 22.7%. From the ring than, import and export more than 6 month ring growth of 3%, following a June after monthly export value and the total value of imports and exports to a record high again (6 month refresh July 2008 of history).

Although the new import and export, import and export growth rate continues to decline, data show, July exports rose by nearly 40%, imports rose by nearly 23%, respectively, compared with 6 month dropped four percentage points and 10 percentage points. The first is to the same period last year import a higher base scale, the second is affected by the impact of domestic macroeconomic adjustment, domestic investment demand further weakness in demand for imports. "For import slowdown, Hong Yuan securities macroeconomic analyst Chen Meng root this explanation. As for the decline in the growth rate for export, Xinda securities macroeconomic analyst Xu jiarong believes that the main international economic situation recovery effect of uncertainty, on the one hand, the PMI export orders index declined for three consecutive months, on the other hand, although the European debt short-term crisis basic past, but the implementation of fiscal austerity brought economic slowdown.

The second half of China's export growth will slow down, the company believes in gold, leading indicators and external economic display export situation descending, coupled with the gradual recovery in the second half of last year, exports of high base effect, is expected to decline markedly in the second half of exports to 10%, but the global economy at the end of the second approach, the risk of external demand slowdown's impact on the Chinese economy continues to be controlled.

In the export and import of innovative high-expected fall under implemented the month July trade surplus $ 287.38 million, much higher than 6 month 200.3 billion, following a 3 month appears monthly deficit after the fourth consecutive month, a new record year, an increase of 180.6%. CICC is of the view that the surplus data is significantly higher than market expectations, pushing high appreciation of the renminbi is expected, and RMB against the dollar "non-active appreciation (depreciation of the dollar against the euro, which led to the 6.5% passive RMB against the dollar 0.88%), the short term may will continue, it is expected that by the end of the appreciation of the Renminbi 3% by the end of the dollar or 6.62.

On the same day, the General Customs Administration also announced the first seven months, China's imports and exports worth $ 16170.5 billion, a growth 40.9%. Exports 8504.9 billion, an increase of 35.6%; import 7665.6 billion 47.2 percent; the trade surplus of $ 839.3, reduce 21.2%.