Not long ago, some experts pointed out that, under the current uncertain economic situation in the European Union, China's textile and clothing exports to the EU for more than 10% of the growth momentum in the second quarter inflection point. While the recent troubles China export enterprise goes well beyond the European debt crisis triggered a series of questions, external market, United States, Japan and other countries, the unemployment rate remains high; internal factors, raw materials costs spiraling, shortage of labor resources, really let enterprises a headache, the appreciation of the RMB will be expected to export enterprises of hardship.
From the beginning of the year on market full of yearning, to today is undergoing of internal and external factors led to dramatic swings in the market, some export enterprise of the interview, the reporter clearly felt their second half of the market trend is not optimistic. Multiple factors superposition of export markets, the symptom was warm, and is covered with a layer of clouds.
European debt crisis — and a Black Swan
Everyone can expect financial crisis will not lightly in the past, but who also did not expect the second wave impulse will sovereign debt crisis. This "after the financial crisis," the product of the times, not only are a drag on the EU economy and the pace of recovery in the global economy, or is likely to affect the recovery in the second half of China's textile exports.
Department of Commerce before founding Dean of the Hopi said that China's exports to the EU's growth rate is maintained at 25%, however, because of the rapid devaluation of the euro may be relative lag, so may the growth of China exports to the EU has come down to fear of 6 month our export growth rate dropped to Europe will be more obvious, next may further decrease of 6% to 7%.
At present, the EU is China's major export market, China trade size of 16%. At the same time, the EU is China's textile and garment exports in the first big market. Affected by the debt crisis in Europe, this year, the depreciation of the euro has been disguised as much as 15% of the average profit margin for only 3% ~ 5% of small and medium-sized textile enterprises to Euro order profit space base has been offset. On the other hand, due to the economic downturn in the European Union, euro area unemployment rate has reached in April 1999, the maximum value of history. This means that the EU's overall spending power goes down, further influence is most likely due to textiles and clothing, and other consumer needs.
"From the beginning of this year, the European market in order to always see improvement, recently, also to one or two months from the delivery time short and the amount is small orders, since uncertainty, European buyers are trying their best to control the risks. "Jiangsu a fabric export Enterprise Sales Manager, Ms. Lee was frank.
Inner Mongolia Daxing cashmere products co., Ltd mainly export to Italy made of cashmere yarn, fabric and apparel products. The company Manager Yin-Ling said: "now do orders were signed in September last year eight, because there is a certain lag, we haven't felt the market volatility. "For the second half of the market can be restored to pre-crisis levels, Yin-Ling answer or reservations," warmer in the end the market depends on the recovery of demand, the debt crisis is likely to be somewhat weaken consumer consumption of enthusiasm. ”
Cost increase bargaining difficult to — profit from both sides by plugging
The weak compared to the European market, the United States market performance looks slightly better. From customs data shows that this year April 1 ~, China's exports to the United States textile amount up 20.61 percent, higher than the European markets growth high by 4 percentage points. However, some companies have indicated that, although the United States market, customers also have improved steadily, but generally offer lower, formed the enterprise orders increased, profits instead of strange phenomenon.
Hebei new Daito textile printing and dyeing co., Ltd. 's main export product is stretch denim, 80% of products sold in the United States. Just back from the United States investigate the company Vice President Zhang warfare-volume with the "fall" l price two words summarize the current situation in the United States market. "No orders, now the company is the price to worry. "Piece of war-that experienced a financial crisis, the United States consumers to turn into the low-end of apparel products, now United States hottest clothing sales market is such as Wal-Mart supermarkets.
Terminal products price is hard to raise the price of raw materials is soaring in the way. To cotton, represented by the rise in raw material prices, the crazy devouring as new Daito such River corporate profits. It is estimated that the cotton price hikes led various finished fabric price rise at least 5% ~ 10%, the resulting profits will decline by about 2%. This allows the original margins of textile enterprises more stagnant. The "raw material price increases in cost burden so that we have to consider price increases, but in this price sensitive period, the enterprise is to risk a procurement volume is reduced or if the order is the risk of withdrawal. "Piece of war-Hui said.
Do not increase the price is going to assume a loss of profits, price and then worry about foreign buying. To OEM OEM oriented small and medium-sized textile enterprises, must expect to raise prices to pass on cost increases pressure on the way there is a certain degree of difficulty. According to Zhang warfare-introduction to the basic price of 20% is the limit, but it is also limited to have better cooperation of foreign investors. In external markets has not completely recovered, buyers are due to end consumer price suppression, affordability of prices, especially explicit fragile.
The appreciation of the renminbi is expected — sale of mutual pressure
In the interview, most companies have stated that the current export orders are in US dollar to euro rate is very small. Import and export co., Ltd. Tianjin clothing Chang Chun-Li, Manager of the reporters that the company's export business last year to use the dollar, the euro clearing of market share of less than 10% of the total. Turning to the impact of the devaluation of the euro, Chang Chun-Li said that in the contract, usually on the settlement currency of exchange rate fluctuation interval restrictions. "If you exceed this range we will coordinate with foreign investors, it can only be assessed not bear such pressure. However, now we are more worried about RMB appreciation. ”
RMB rise will export the enterprise's profit losses brought about much?, in other according to the estimation of the production elements of costs and prices unchanged, the appreciation of the RMB per 1 percentage point, corporate profits will decrease by 1%. As an export-oriented industries, the textiles industry, the prospects of recovery inevitably affected by the impact of the appreciation of the Renminbi. "If the year of RMB control in 3% or less, the company can safely cross the border, if you reach the 5% that would be more obvious side effects, then we had to give up part of the order, to eliminate low-value customers ways to absorb the cost. "A foreign trade company reps said.
Another industry pointed out that, since the major exchange rate risk borne by the purchaser, is likely to cause them great single and long single and small single-and short-and the number of Chinese exports. It is foreseeable that the appreciation of the Renminbi to break certain bounds, enterprise's profit not only from extrusion, has long accumulation of order resources is likely to shift to other countries or regions.
In the face of pressures, textile and apparel exporters in the way of recovery and not flat. And external market, China's domestic market remained steady upward momentum. Recently, several institutions predict that China's textile and garment in the second half of the domestic market can remain in a growth rate of more than 15%. In foreign demand market shock, there have been targeting domestic enterprises, want to be able to make through expanded domestic market due to the appreciation of the Renminbi, trade friction causing overseas business reduce losses.
In addition, there are to be ignored since the beginning of the strong growth in ASEAN, emerging markets such as Latin America, crisis, the creation of export market diversification, value-added products, and timely product adjustment, the enterprise's ability to resist risks can be effectively promoted.
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