From "factory Rob order" to "traders get factory"
This year, the expected growth of export continuous Ultra, export value in the last two months even hit an all-time high. Reporters found that export business in the first half of this year is too good to be incredible. In the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and other export enterprise focus areas, the financial crisis after the factory rush orders "traders get factory". After a tumultuous, along with additional inventory in the second half of the overseas trade, export orders are starting to return to reason. But at the end of August to start "Christmas orders" and make trade of warmer conditions, has been basically stable in 2008, before the crisis.
The survey found that many export enterprise bargaining, taking advantage of the warmer of homeopathy orders will increase costs for overseas customers. At the same time a batch size and technical advantages of exporting enterprises, improve profits through product upgrades and added value solutions to exchange rate fluctuations and increased risk costs.
These areas of exports is clearly better than expected. But experts warn that the expected growth of export in fall risk after the export decline may during the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. External export environment is likely to continue to worsen in the future, internal pressure increases wages, the risks of the Renminbi exchange rate fluctuations cannot be ignored.
Export enterprises: overtime rush discovered bidder orders
"It was busy first half of the gasp, workers often work overtime rush orders, the orders come down now, but essentially stable in 2008 the level before the financial crisis. The Guangdong Dongguan a garment factory history Toko. The business ten years ago in Dongguan Changan town, is a brand for Western outdoor clothing manufacturing of Hong Kong enterprises, Germany, France, the United Kingdom is the main market in Europe.
He explains that during the first half of the order quantity increased principally inventory replenishment. The entire 2009 Traders procurement volume of orders is small, the first half of the inventory digestion are almost, the urgent need for supplemental inventory. In addition, the financial crisis after the collapse of some garment factory, factory number reduced, increasing the concentration of orders is also a big factor.
Many exporters are feeling. In the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and other export enterprise focus areas, the financial crisis after the factory rush orders into "traders get factory". Jiangsu a responsible clothing trade company told reporters that the first half of the foreign customer orders rush had to sit huoshaomeimao, Mills hike. Because order too many, many processing plants even disregard previous cooperation relations, who out of price high to who does.
After a tumultuous period, beginning in the second half of the export orders, but the recent return of rationality and has warmed up. Introduction to the history of Toko, generally at the end of August to start Christmas orders by the factory orders, three months after the production period of about this group of products to ensure that before shipment. The first half of the year is supplementary inventory, it is now truly reflect the demand. Looks good European order situation, especially the economic recovery, Germany took the lead in Germany for export orders during this time the fastest growth. "History of Toko said.
Reporters found that at present some of the larger, strong export order is more optimistic. The world's largest wig processing enterprises Rebecca Dongmi Lu new Yao, told reporters that now women's wear wigs of order already ranked by the end of the year, extentions order also to November, the order is the most flexible fiber spring also to 9-10 months. "Now the maximum production capacity is insufficient focus on the European white wig products, African products are also very normal. "
The survey found that, in addition to the textile and clothing, and other bulk commodities export orders stable growth in exports dominated basic electromechanical product orders also remained stable. "Order no sag, now a positive value of Western Christmas gift production peak in increasing order, is busy or there is a shortage of workers are still very serious. "Dongguan an electronics company official said.
According to Dongguan Huian talent market information, recent field job fair last month than recruiting ring and 10 per cent increase, the number of open positions has increased by 14%, and in particular workers demand for skilled worker class post 37%.
Customs statistics, 7 months before this year, exports of electromechanical products dominate exports 36.2% higher than the corresponding overall export growth 0.6 percentage points. Including electrical and electronic products export 2026.3 billion, an increase of 34.7%; machinery and equipment exports 1696.7 billion, an increase of 36.6%.
Prices: discourse of wind power to strengthen the bargaining
In the survey reporters found that many export enterprise bargaining, instead taking advantage of the order of warmer, homeopathy to increase costs for overseas customers.
Introduction to the new Lu Yao, along with the overseas market needs improvement, Rebecca product prices have recovered to the level before the financial crisis. "In 2008 to 2009, according to the current situation, we price adjustments have been made to allow the performance of that year had reached 20% growth. The current price and partial restore to before the financial crisis. Now as product upgrades, high quality products, prices are expected to continue to be promoted. "
Analysts pointed out that China's export enterprise bargaining power to improve, and the financial crisis, China's expansion of export market share. 2009 China over Germany to become the world's largest exporter, and Chinese products have rigid demand characteristics, once the recovery in external demand, as the supply side of the right of speech will also be able to upgrade.
CICC report considers that, if Japan and the four Tigers as a whole considered that its export growth lasted 40 years, the market share of world exports a maximum reach of 23%. Chinese exports although there have been 30 years of high growth, exports world market share of only 9.6%, there is a big space for development.
"Any of a large distributor to rely on the vendor on its operating needs of the supply of products, dependence on enterprise, price, profit allocation on the dealer to consider enterprise into, this is the second allocation process. "Introduction to the new Lu Yao, Rebecca efforts in added value
, Lot launched high-end products, although high-end products cost more than conventional products, but the same as in the gross margin, profit added absolute value to significantly increase, this will surely soothe exchange rate volatility and rising costs.
In addition, export costs rise is not only the pressure on China to manufacturing export-oriented global others come to say goodbye to low cost, global manufacturing is a new round of changes.
The world's largest trade and Logistics Hong Kong Kingston Group President Le yumin pointed out that from Bangladesh, Viet Nam and Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries costs are rising. When China's prices, most other countries will follow. Most retailers are acceptable prices. Not only is China's price rise, rise everywhere. But as for the prices section is passed to the market of consumers will be more difficult. Retailers really count on is how to increase efficiency, how to get less price promotions.
Next: potential risks to be ignored
China's export business is not a bright future, some potential risk remains to be vigilant. Most analysts agree that the expected growth of export in fall risk after the export decline may during the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year.
Bank of communications Institute of Lu Chih-ming said that from the external environment, emerging market countries hike, tighten monetary measures decompression economic overheating, Europe, the developed countries vulnerable resuscitation, CRB index stabilised, China's export demand will be slowed down. Then add up the inventory cycle start, external export environment is likely to continue to worsen in the future. From the internal environment, medium-and long-term wages increased pressure, the Renminbi exchange rate fluctuations, exporting enterprises profit space narrowing, continuous extrusion export enterprise growth and profitability.
Analysts noted that especially elastic and electrical products, etc. larger industrial range of fluctuation of the future may be greater. For example, mechanical equipment export orientation is the emerging economies and countries, foreign economic recovery of uncertainty, the dollar rebound effect of complex factors, such as, in the second half of the foreign demand for machinery and equipment exists the risk of deflation. The first half of the hyper-anticipated demand section overdrawn at the future, the future growth of the exports of machinery and equipment will be lower than the first half of the year. And the month of July was cancelled for export tax rebates of some industries exports such as rubber, pesticides, inorganic chemicals industries affected is relatively large, some enterprises in the export refund cancelled before blitz export nearly two month export growth, Q3 these industry exports could be substantially reduced.
At the same time, China's export trade risk of protectionism. Since 1995, our continuous 15 years into the biggest victims of global anti-dumping. Last year, China's GDP accounted for 8% of world exports global 9.6%, the anti-dumping suffered the world's 40%, 75% of the total global countervailing measures. January-may, a total of 14 countries (regions) on the product launch of the trade remedies investigations since 31, with a total value of around 18 million cases.
Relief from Europe Trade investigation often have major export industry as a whole. The ceramic industry, for example, the EU industry in late may start for China's imports of ceramic tiles submitted a complaint of anti-dumping investigation, in accordance with established practice, the EU will pay 10 to 20 days formal '. Because of the amount over $ 200 million in connection, involving enterprises almost cover the domestic well-known ceramic enterprises, once the file, will become China's ceramic industry facing history's largest anti-dumping investigation. Analysts believe that these potential risks cannot be ignored.